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Breeders Cup 2009
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david-uk
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 7:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like the draws have been fixed to me so the european's cant win the two classic races.
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penleguin
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just looking at Friday's Ladies Classic on the RP site.

They show Lethal Heat at best odds of 20/1, Cocoa Beach 6/1 and Life is Sweet 8/1. LH beat the other two last time out at Santa Anita at level weights - anyone know why she is such a big price?
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newyorktony
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

zacinto morning line price is 8-1 looks overpriced, goldikova may well overcome the draw as she is that good!!  i dont want to start an argument but why does Cre8flow always undervalue the european horses? or is it just me?  


david-uk wrote:
cre8flow wrote:
chances are its not so bad for rainbow view and rip
the field is very tough for rainbow view-that is the concern not the post

goldikova has the class to overcome the outside post due to the weak field
lure overcame it but had more speed


Not sure how you can call Zacinto a poor horse? Only had 4 runs, got within a length of RVW latest, will come on a bundle for it. Had a niggly problem which the stable kept quiet after the QE11 which cost punters money who backed him for the Champion Stakes. But at 6/1 hes a good bet. How Freddie Head can come out and say Goldikova is in th best form ever after a very poor run last time is just pulling people's chains, I will take her on, lay of the meeting.
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gromero
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey NYT
When you say morning line, that is just the equivalent of our tissue price isn’t it? That price can still change dramatically on the US tote?
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newyorktony
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yes mate to be honest the morning line price is really worth much as prices change alot very quickly not as much on the bigger race days though!!   one thing i will say be careful of backing big price horse to show on the US tote the return isnt always not great, it works the other way on shorter priced horses as people dont back these to show much if you go on the attheraces website it explains it better than i can its on Barry Faulkners bit on US racing!!  take goldikova for instance will be around 2s on US pool but the show return would be probably be around evens to be placed maybe alittle odds on and has she has a bad draw and this could be the bet
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gromero
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ok cheers.
Interesting point about looking at the show prices of short priced favs, I'll pay close attention.

This is going to be fun on betfair this year, lots of possibilities to lose my money.
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cre8flow
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

david-uk wrote:
cre8flow wrote:
chances are its not so bad for rainbow view and rip
the field is very tough for rainbow view-that is the concern not the post

goldikova has the class to overcome the outside post due to the weak field
lure overcame it but had more speed


Not sure how you can call Zacinto a poor horse? Only had 4 runs, got within a length of RVW latest, will come on a bundle for it. Had a niggly problem which the stable kept quiet after the QE11 which cost punters money who backed him for the Champion Stakes. But at 6/1 hes a good bet. How Freddie Head can come out and say Goldikova is in th best form ever after a very poor run last time is just pulling people's chains, I will take her on, lay of the meeting.

where do i say zacinto is a poor horse?
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cre8flow
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i do not underrate euros
i am not exactly sure convinced of the class/form of rainbow view
plus she has never raced on poly..its a tough field
she will be a decent price so i have to consider her
like lethal heat at 20-1
zacinto doesnt exactly have a great post either
its about class
1)goldikova
2)delegator
3)zacinto
4)court vision
5)gladiatorus
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cre8flow
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

david-uk wrote:
Looks like the draws have been fixed to me so the european's cant win the two classic races.

maybe you know something about santa anita that i dont know
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lenahan
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Id been eyeing up Zacinto as one of my main plays at the meet and ill be backing him each way. I was dissapointed with his draw but Goldikova is outside him and its a small field and i cant see him out of the 3.
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lenahan
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What am i missing with Fleeting Spirit in the Sprint ? Shes a big price even here. She came 4th last year in the Turf Sprint after a season nowhere near as good as this one. Anyone able to tell me why she is such a long price in the market ? I dont get this one. Surely i must be missing something ?  
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gromero
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bad draw again isn't it Lenahan?
I can't remember what the track is like, is there a turn on the sprint course?

By the way, if anyone wants the drf form sheets for both nights, pm me your email address and i'll forward them on. Then perhaps you can get back to me on how to read them, damn they are confusing!!
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david-uk
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cre8flow wrote:
david-uk wrote:
cre8flow wrote:
chances are its not so bad for rainbow view and rip
the field is very tough for rainbow view-that is the concern not the post

goldikova has the class to overcome the outside post due to the weak fieldlure overcame it but had more speed


Not sure how you can call Zacinto a poor horse? Only had 4 runs, got within a length of RVW latest, will come on a bundle for it. Had a niggly problem which the stable kept quiet after the QE11 which cost punters money who backed him for the Champion Stakes. But at 6/1 hes a good bet. How Freddie Head can come out and say Goldikova is in th best form ever after a very poor run last time is just pulling people's chains, I will take her on, lay of the meeting.

where do i say zacinto is a poor horse?




Above, same thing if you ask me, weak and poor.
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lenahan
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gromero wrote:
Bad draw again isn't it Lenahan?
I can't remember what the track is like, is there a turn on the sprint course?

By the way, if anyone wants the drf form sheets for both nights, pm me your email address and i'll forward them on. Then perhaps you can get back to me on how to read them, damn they are confusing!!


She was the same price more or less before the draws though and i stand to be corrected but i think the draw is less of an issue in the sprint races!
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lenahan
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What a shame SeaTheStars hasnt gone for the Classic. Even some way below his best hed surely win this with ease wouldnt he ?


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