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Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2009 12:52 am Post subject: saturday 3 october
a great day of racing tomorrow and I dont know if this should be on the cambridgeshie thread or a new thread for sat - the new thread wasnt started so a first for me I’ll start it.
The interesting thing about saturday is who is there, who isnt, and who is riding what. As for the c'shire I will bow to previous correspondents on the c’shire thread and will go with tryst ( Stoute is in top form) and as the much maligned R Hills is in top top form also and go with his Al something or another.
Frankie has decided a weekend in Paris is better than Newmarket so discount all godolphin runners for tomorrow. Why is the wonderful Paul Hanagan riding for Stoute in the C'shire (Tryst thankfully), a great booking but unusual for him so Stoute obviously doesnt trust the good but relatively unproven L P Beuzalin (see later) who could claim 5 (maybe not in the C’shire, I don’t know) and make it all but a certainty (mind you 35 runners not for apprentices maybe).
Then there is the 2.40 at redcar 14 runners 12 of whom are at 8 st or less and Fahey has one without Hanagan carrying 9.10 in effect giving 22 lb to the field - so is Dream Lodge that good which it is on official ratings or is there a 7.12 horse of which there are 9 likely to be a handicap good thing? - interesting and i dont know which one .........yet!.
Back to L P Beuzalin who has been sent to Epsom to ride one Stoute horse (and a couple of spare rides) Worth a Kings R’ in the 3.45 in the well named Apprentices Derby Handicap perhaps the name of the race says it all. Any way official ratings have it 1 or 2 pounds better that the top 2 weights and its getting 6 lbs from them so maybe that’s the handicap cert of the day?
Our Godolphin friends send their apprentice Ajtebi for one ride at Epsom (zeitoper in the 3-10) when there are possibilities at newmarket and in that race Cecil has a horse with Ahern on (a good sign) while he and Queally are at redcar (understandably) for the £100k 2yo race - Rodrigo de Torres which is drawn in the middle (14) and is an interesting runner 10/1 at moment so ew is a possibility.
Finally and sorry for waxing on but today Fallon/Butler had a 10/1 winner and on the basis that success breeds success they have 2 going tomorrow in the first and last at HQ - in the 1.50 it looks like Lilly Langtry is an o'brien cert (although I do like Jirs with Brittain and Callan) but the get out of jail free card looks like Tinnar in the 5.25.
so what doesa all that mean Tryst, Worth a Kings R and Tinnar doubles and trebles.
Finally (again) for all those that think that the RP website is a load of ... then look at the ATR site - its getting there and free.
Newmarket 1:50 - I'm against Lillie Langtree; can't take the form particularly seriously given this is Newmarket over 7f on firm ground. Fair lay if you want.
Newmarket 3:00 - You can make a case for both Strawberrydaiquery (Moore's selection particularly) and Fantasia (back in the UK) but on demonstrated ability and against fillies Ghanaati is a pretty good prospect at any better than evens. She holds the mile track record at Ascot (over Mastercraftsman and RVW, though the latter got within 0.5s on softer ground) - nevertheless a class animal and worth a few quid, but obviously there are a few nerves jangling because of the break.
Newmarket 3:40 - Seems to be a feeling that the winner will come up the stands rail because of the wind (like last year) but the winner is usually drawn high (like last year; came across). Almiqdaad makes lots of appeal on trends (except that he runs with a penalty, not historically a good thing) and Wannabe King who is also progressing nicely and will probably have to stay on the far side.
Longchamp 3:45 - Reggane looks plenty progressive enough back on a sound surface and has a cracking chance at 5-1.
Does anyone know when the coverage of longchamp starts on BBCi please ?
How do you get BBCi up? Red button?
Red button then multiscreen sport. The first race they're showing is the 2:40 today, I'm not sure when we get the build up with Willie, Claire and Rishi though. _________________ Tricky Trickster - Grand National Winner 2010
Longchamp 3:45 - Reggane looks plenty progressive enough back on a sound surface and has a cracking chance at 5-1.
11/2 Regganne is a group 1 horse at a mile/10F imo. Look at the 2L 2nd place run behind Ghannatti at ascot on what was only her 3rd start at the time. I thought she could turn form around with Ghannati in the future. She scoped dirty last time out on unsuitable ground so that run can easily be forgiven. Its likely she has improved again since ascot. This is a group 2 and she gets her ground. She skipped the Sun Chariot for this which would make me bullish as well in the sense connections wanted a 3yo group success before the season was out rather than risk taking on ghannati again. She is also on home ground and is with the best french fillies/mare trainer. I respect some of the other contenders particularly the 2nd and 3rd favs but i think Reggane is better than this lot and the winner. Id certainly expect her to at least be in the places.
I was expecting 2/1 ish and would have left alone so im staggered at the price with the UK bookies and i rate her as a huge each way value bet for the day.
Beacon Lodge rates as the main danger imo and hes actually looking to be a pretty nice price on the pmu (10/1) so could be worth throwing him into the mix as well ew.
340pm LongCh Reggane 11/2 or better if available pmu/betfair/bog etcpossibly add beacon lodge ew at 6/1 or bigger on the pmu
Last edited by lenahan on Sat Oct 03, 2009 12:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Regganne is a group 1 horse at a mile/10F imo. Look at the 2L 2nd place run behind Ghannatti at ascot on what was only her 3rd start at the time. I thought she could turn form around with Ghannati in the future. She scoped dirty last time out on unsuitable ground so that run can easily be forgiven. Its likely she has improved again since ascot. This is a group 2 and she gets her ground. She skipped the Sun Chariot for this which would make me bullish as well in the sense connections wanted a 3yo group success before the season was out rather than risk taking on ghannati again. She is also on home ground and is with the best french fillies/mare trainer. I respect some of the other contenders particularly the 2nd and 3rd favs but i think Reggane is better than this lot and the winner. Id certainly expect her to at least be in the places.
