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racingfanatic · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:16 pm Post subject:

Only stats I know is must be less than 11-3 and aged between 6 and 8 years old...

I know there are more...

Also does anyone know when the weights are out?

Thanks

Andy · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 1:18 pm Post subject:

Posted this on page 1:

A couple of stats I picked up from the thread last year: -
- 30 of the last 37 winners were in the top 4 in the betting
- 15 of the last 17 winners had previously won at the track
- It's been over 15 Years since a ten year old+ has been placed

Those stats stood up so now 31 of 38 winners were top 4 betting and 16 of the last 18 winners had previously won at the course.

Course form is clearly important here but i've done a bit more research into other factors.

AGE

Since 1990 (19 renewals), these are the ages of the winners:

5yo (1), 6yo (4), 7yo (6), 8yo (4), 9yo (4).

Based on that I would focus on the 6-8 age group though it could be dangerous to exclude the 9yos. However, if you look at the more recent past and look at the 9 renewals since 2000, you get the following picture:

6yo (3), 7yo(4), 8yo (1), 9yo (1).

Whilst 8 and 9yos were responsible for a fair few winners in the 1990s, since 2000 the race has been dominated by the 6 and 7yos. It's probably not a coincidence that since Cyfor Malta won his second PP in 2002 (as a 9yo), the race has been dominated by 2nd-season chasers. The only winner since then not to be a 2nd season chaser was Our Vic, though his second season was somewhat abortive after a bad fall and he was still pretty unexposed as a 3rd season chaser.

WEIGHT

Not much to be gained here. Since 1990 the highest weight carried to victory was 11-11 by Bradbury Star, and since 2000 11-9 by Cyfor Malta in 2002. Our Vic won under 11-7 in 2005. At the bottom, 10-00 has been carried to victory a few times. There doesn't seem to be an obvious trend.

Overall
I think the trends point to horses that are 6 or 7 years old and are having their second season over fences or are clearly still on the upgrade. Course form is clearly important with 16 of the last 18 winners previously successful at the course.

I originally hoped that Ping Pong Sivola would be entered so was a bit disappointed not to see an entry. However, Gauvain has been entered and I also like the look of Shining Gale. Paul Nicholls has three of the top 4 in the betting and of his I prefer Poquelin.

Andy · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 10:06 am Post subject:

Good to see Planet of Sound and Cornas give the Arkle form a boost yesterday. That's good news if you're a Gauvain fan.

Been having another look at the card and Razor Royale could be another horse worth considering. NTD won the race last year and always likes to have a few runners. He also has Knowhere, Ballyfitz and Battlecry entered but Razor Royale looks like he could be the pick of the four - Knowhere is too old and too exposed, Battlecry appears to have no stomach for the game (folded very tamely when headed the other day and has also done so in the past) and Ballyfitz might want a bit further than 2m5f.

Razor Royale is a second season chaser, he's 7, he's won over the distance and he has plenty of course experience. He has run at Cheltenham 7 times and though he has tipped up once, he has won at the course, been placed twice and has also been fourth on a couple of occasions. His 7th place finish was in the Ballymore behind the likes of Fivefourthree, Venalmar, Trafford Lad and Forpadydeplasterer, which is no disgrace. He was actually rated 145 over hurdles but is currently rated 129 over fences, so he could be well treated. With his low rating he might not get in or if he does could be out of the handicap, but if there a lot of defections and he gets in off his correct mark he could go well at a big price (33/1).

racingfanatic · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:03 pm Post subject:

weights out tomorrow guys...time to start getting excited

Interest shout on Razor Royale...but think Gauvain is more interesting, I think last year's arkle has been underrated by some...

merrymozzer · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:38 pm Post subject:

Weights out now!
_________________
First Competition Winner 2009
Lincoln Competition Winner 2009
Goodwood Competition Winner 2009

racingfanatic · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:28 pm Post subject:

I meant today...sorry...but no website has updated it yet...will try and post when they have...

merrymozzer · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:51 pm Post subject:

Rowan · Group Performer Joined: 27 May 2006 Posts: 8439

Andy · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:02 pm Post subject:

Does anyone know if the top 3 are likely runners? Petit Robin strikes me more of a 2-miler, My Will is down to run in Ireland this weekend and Our Vic hasn't run in a handicap for over 3 years.

lochsong · Group Performer Joined: 01 May 2006 Posts: 10026

Henderson has 3 or 4 lower down. Compressing the handicap maybe?

lochsong · Group Performer Joined: 01 May 2006 Posts: 10026

My My

Chapoturgeon, the 5yo winner of last March's Jewson seems to have come under considerable interest on BF.

Andy · Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:29 am Post subject:

I'm not sure about Chapoturgeon. Granted he was a good winner of the Jewson, but he's paid for that with a hike of 18lbs in the handicap and he's now on 153. That seems stiff enough for a horse that's won a 5-runner novice chase and a novices handicap chase. Only two winners since 2000 have defied a mark of >150 to win this. One was Fondmort who only beat 8 rivals and the other was Cyfor Malta when he won his second PP.

He's also a 5yo, which is also a bit of a concern. Now, no 5yo has won since Cyfor Malta won his 1st PP, but you do have to put that into perspective as you are looking at only a small number of runners from that age group (only about a dozen since 2000). A couple have been placed including New Alco and Poliantas, and interestingly around half of those 5yos have been sent out by Paul Nicholls. Aside from the previously mentioned Poliantas, his other 5yos have not faired too well - Le Duc and My Will failed to fire and Taranis and Granit Jack (RIP) failed to get around.

Finally, his overall form profile does worry me slightly - he's run 6 times over fences, fallen twice and has been turned over when odds-on on 3 occasions. I just find him difficult to get enthusiastic about, especially at 6/1.

lochsong · Group Performer Joined: 01 May 2006 Posts: 10026

Fair comment Andy.

Poquelin it is then!

LongJ0n · Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:48 am Post subject:

racingfanatic · Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:35 pm Post subject:

Gauvain and Poquelin are the stat horses...what does everyone think of them????