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Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:11 pm Post subject: general election
Interesting piece on five live about the swing required for the conservatives to have a majority with Ken Clarke and Lord Steele predicting a hung parliamnet I have taken the 4.8 on Betfair _________________ There are two certainties in life Death and Taxes they no longer tax betting so there may be a god
Grand National 2009 Comp Winner
September October 2009 NAP Comp Winner
I think when it gets nearer the time people will realise what a mistake it would be to vote conservative and go with the safe Labour option.
I am not really into politics but when you listen to some of the policies the conservatives were talking about in this last year of financial hardship this country would be either bankrupt or we would at least have hundreds of beggers on every street corner(a bit like the last time they were in power I suppose). _________________ Forest are Treemendous
What was Kinnocks lead over the conservatives prior to losing to major. The polls are just people sounding off and always swing back to the incumbents as the election draws nearer. _________________ There are two certainties in life Death and Taxes they no longer tax betting so there may be a god
Grand National 2009 Comp Winner
September October 2009 NAP Comp Winner
What was Kinnocks lead over the conservatives prior to losing to major. The polls are just people sounding off and always swing back to the incumbents as the election draws nearer.
Oh come, that was Neil bleeding Kinnock.
David Cameron won't make the elementary mistakes that Kinnock made in '92; contrast the Tory conference of a few weeks ago to Labour in Sheffield all those years ago for starters. Cameron just needs to stay on the horse for the last few furlongs and the key's to number ten are his.
The only way Labour could get back in the race is by ousting Gordon, but that won't happen as they're all cowards. _________________ This is like a flashback,
This is like a dream
I think a hung parliament is quite likely. Living in one of the very few 4 way marginal seats in the country perhaps this has clouded my judgement but take this into account.
Labour- Will undoubtedly lose seats but will probably gain a few back in the heartlands to soften the blow as they have had an(admittedly small) switch to the left and what they should be.
Lib Dems- Strong in certain area's of the country and have not been as affected by the expenses scandal as Labour and the Tories.
SNP- Will undoubtedly get a fair few seats in Scotland.
Plaid Cymru- I think they will take more seats off Labour in Wales
Greens- Look very likely to get Brighton And Hove and possibly Norwich South
UKIP- Unlikely to get a seat but could take votes off the tories to stop them doing so.
Plus there's all the Northern Irish seats to consider.
Having said all this, I think a tory win is stillthe most likely outcome but it wouldn't be a very big surprise if all of the above collectively got more seats than the tories imho. _________________ You're born with nothing, and better off that way,
As soon as you got something they send someone to try & take it away!
I think Plaid's 3 or 4 (whatever it is, it'll be 5 or less) seats, the SNP's single figure weigh in as well as the NI seats which couldn't be more irrelevant if they tried aren't really an issue here.
I think this election could be catastrophic for the Lib Dems as they get squeezed by strong support for the two larger parties. I think we could see as many as ten seats knocked off their current total.
I'd be massively surprised if the Greens ended up with an MP.
UKIP will always do well in European Elections being the one issue party they are but in a General Election, their supporters will flock back to the Tories in their droves.
I suppose a hung parliament is fairly likely, given that it's one of two possible outcomes along with a Tory majority. However it's no where near as likely as a majority for Dave and the gang. _________________ This is like a flashback,
This is like a dream
There are 645 Parliamentary seats altogether. The SNP currently hold 6. Plaid Cymru hold 3 and there are 18 in Northern Ireland. This is 27 seats(assuming the SNP & Plaid Cymru don't get more than they already have. I personally expect both of them to do so). When talking of a hung parliament whereby if it happens, it'll be a close run thing, I would say these seats(at least 27 and possibly more) would be incredibly significant as they could tip the balance one way or another.
Having said this, if a hung parliament does occur, it is obvious the most important factor would be what the Lib Dems decide to do. I can't see the SNP or Plaid Cymru siding with the Tories over Labour but the Lib Dems might which is one of the reasons they have lost my support. _________________ You're born with nothing, and better off that way,
As soon as you got something they send someone to try & take it away!
NI is irrelevant as far as this bet is concerned because no one who could form a government contests them so they're a constant, if irrelevant picture in the issue of who forms the government. The 18 seats in NI will not swing anything as no one who could form a government contests them.
Plaid may take one or two, so might the SNP but when the Tories are smacking the Liberals out of middle England and in the Liberal heartland of the well to do south west it's not all that relevant. _________________ This is like a flashback,
This is like a dream
Also, any SNP and Plaid gains will be taking seats from Labour or the Liberals, thus making a hung parliament less not more likely. _________________ This is like a flashback,
This is like a dream
I think when it gets nearer the time people will realise what a mistake it would be to vote conservative and go with the safe Labour option.
I am not really into politics but when you listen to some of the policies the conservatives were talking about in this last year of financial hardship this country would be either bankrupt or we would at least have hundreds of beggers on every street corner(a bit like the last time they were in power I suppose).
The number of homeless in London was reduced under the Conservatives, form around 1,000 a night to 270 a night by 1995. The figure has increased due to new labours attempts at social engineering. Eastern Europeans now make up 1 in 7 of the homeless, thats around 14%. Lets not kid ourselves that this increase isnt down to Blair and Brown. _________________ If at first you dont succeed..then skydiving isnt for you
Also, any SNP and Plaid gains will be taking seats from Labour or the Liberals, thus making a hung parliament less not more likely.
That's why Iinclude Labour & the Liberalsin my list of parties. As regards the N.I seats not being relevant in forming a government, I agree but that doesn't mean they won't be relevant in forming a hung parliament.
Don't get me wrong I won't be betting on a hung parliament anytime soon as I think the tories will(unfortunately) win the next election. However, I just don't think a hung parliament is as unlikely as you're making out. _________________ You're born with nothing, and better off that way,
As soon as you got something they send someone to try & take it away!
I think when it gets nearer the time people will realise what a mistake it would be to vote conservative and go with the safe Labour option.
I am not really into politics but when you listen to some of the policies the conservatives were talking about in this last year of financial hardship this country would be either bankrupt or we would at least have hundreds of beggers on every street corner(a bit like the last time they were in power I suppose).
The number of homeless in London was reduced under the Conservatives, form around 1,000 a night to 270 a night by 1995. The figure has increased due to new labours attempts at social engineering. Eastern Europeans now make up 1 in 7 of the homeless, thats around 14%. Lets not kid ourselves that this increase isnt down to Blair and Brown.
I don't know about any figures in London and I cannot see what any priminister could do be it Blair, Brown or a conservative one could do to stop Eastern Europeans being homeless but I do know that I have not seen a homeless person in this country for 15 years but 20 years ago they were in every city and small town no matter where you went.
Like said I have no view either way on politics as I am Intelligent enough to know that they are all crooks and I would rather protest with no vote than vote for anyone of them as voting for no crooks is better than voting for one or the other.
What I would say is that any person would be hard pushed to say they are not better off now than what they were 20 years ago.
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