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I was a week early, it will I suspect stay steady at or about or above 4800 after next week; subject only to a little bit of profit-taking
the return to growth in major economies will be great news for the multi-nationals on the FTSE, I cant see big falls in the autumn and think 2009 will end well. It's what happens post election, whoever wins, that will be the big problem. _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
I think 5,000 may be the next big psychological barrier. News from Europe and the US is reeporting the worst may be over. If so it could still creep up for a while longer. _________________ If at first you dont succeed..then skydiving isnt for you
confidence in the private sector now returning; the only worry for the economy is the financial lunacy in central government which means that we cant meet our central borrowing requirements to fund the debt HMG has incurred
so pubic sector jobs or works will be cut.... i think some people will ievitably go but the reduction in "big ticket" schemes will bounce against the construction industry making a recovery _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
most of our clients are short the index and long a very specific selection of stocks. one of the analysts we speak to is looking to get short in the s&p around 1040 (15 points higher).
i'm bored of trying to pick the top but can't bring myself to join the trend, so i have no position.
hope all of you bullish folks are making loadsa money
UK house sales fell in August from July, the first drop this year, according to HM Revenue & Customs.
Figures from HMRC show that 83,000 homes were sold last month, down from 87,000 in July.
House sales had been rising steadily this year, with the property market reviving from the sudden slump triggered by the credit crunch in 2007.
However, sales in August were still double the number sold in January, and 19% higher than in August last year.
The figures chime with those from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) , which last week reported that total mortgage lending, both for house buyers and people re-mortgaging, dropped by 13% in August from July.
The CML attributed this to the effect of the summer holidays.
But some commentators had predicted that the revival of sales and house prices this year would soon run out of steam.
Parental cash
There has been some evidence that much of the new house buying, particularly by first-time buyers, has been financed substantially by loans from parents who have been providing money for their children's mortgage deposits.
A recent survey from the property website FindaProperty.com of more than 4,000 users showed that nearly half of first-time buyers received financial help from their families to buy a home.
Lenders typically require a down payment of 25% of a property's value before granting a first-time loan.
Earlier this month the economic forecasters at the Ernst & Young Item Club said this source of money had artificially stimulated the property market this year and would soon run out, leading to a renewed fall in house prices next year.
However the best indicator of near-term trends in sales comes from the Bank of England which publishes figures each month on the number of new mortgages approved for house purchase but not yet lent.
Its most recent data shows that mortgage approvals, which have been rising steadily since their low point last November, went up again in July to just over 50,000.
Though a minority of sales go through without the buyer taking out a mortgage, the mortgage approvals figures suggest that overall sales are not likely to fall significantly in the near future.
Not sure how meaningful this one piece of data is, but I expect to see pretty signifiant house price falls in 2010-2011.
Not only due to increased supply as builders return to the now more stable market, but also if inflation kicks in and i/r's go up, then this will have downward pressure on prices through both increased variable repayments (and so less demand) and increased repossessions (increasing supply/diluting demand) - which will especially be the case when there are 3m+ unemployed.
Potential inflation (with it's inevitable knock on consequences for interest rates) is by far and away the biggest threat to households. Low i/r's have been a godsend for so many in the last year
How is everyone doing? If anyone recalls i took a big plunge this time last year and just missed the absolute bottom. Still, i've recently taken out a small enough profit and am waiting hopefully to reap the rewards down the line on what i hold.
Think my holdings in RBS may have to wait slightly longer though! Generally, breaking even on what ive got
Goldman Sachs said that there were signs of "improving conditions and evidence of stabilisation" in the world economy.
It has set aside $5.35bn to cover pay and bonuses for the quarter.
The remuneration figure is up from $2.9bn in the same period last year, but down from $6.65bn in the previous quarter.
It brings the total for the first nine months of this year to $16.7bn.
It means that the bank's 31,000 employees will make an average of $172,581 for the three-month period.
"Goldman has always been the biggest bonus payer simply because its people make more money per person than anyone else," Ralph Silva from Tower Group told BBC News.
"The problem here is fundamental, it is a very complex business. There are very few people in the world who have the ability to do this job so the reason they get paid so much is there is just not enough of them."
$170k a quarter, I'm in the wrong game
I'm in two minds about this, on the one hand I want to see the top dogs and top performers get their due but on the other the industry doesn't deserve it this year.
I really hope we don't see this type of pay out over here next month especialy as so many in the banking industry have lost their jobs over the past year. _________________ Tricky Trickster - Grand National Winner 2010
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