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I have the truftrax service and when I have the time I will be looking into the relative splits pf the race. I have a suspicion that between 6 and 8 CR and DA were absolutely flying relative to most Guineas. I will post up what I discover though in time. _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
turftrax used to give out free sectional times didnt they?i remember looking at last years as amedaius wolf flew 4f to 6f but ran really slow the last 2f.
to me ,i suspect there was a unusually strong massive early pace, bit like the king george of 2005 and giacomas kentucky derby ,where the best thing to do is just to sit and wait at the back and wait for those who force to tire.with this in mind,i think vital equine as done amazingly well considering he forced the pace and was well clear at one point.2yo's who also set juvenile record at top tracks have a iimpressive record at group 1 level.i think with a bit more experience and disipline,as he does tend to pull or run keen,im gonna say vital equine will end up top miler at the end of the season. _________________ stotsfold going to be special this flat season.
watch out old 'uns, the 3yos are coming to get you!!
if so this race reminds me of the monarchos kentucky derby which was fast/fast...congaree was close up to a superhot pace in that race and just got nosed out for 2nd-it was an out of world performance..congaree eneded up being an underrated miler...point given was stuck up close to the pace due to jockey/trainer mishandling and went on to win the preakness and belmont...monarchos didnt do much after that-i think that he got placed in one of those two othe tp races....the monarchos performance may have been the 2nd fastest derby-if not 2nd way up there...its a little different cutting back to 1m 3/16th,then going 12f...i felt that this would be a hot pace and made teofilo vunerable to pace and form considerations and there is a good chance he would not have won this particular race
was last night derby fast run, street sense - 19th to first?
teofilo as showed though he can come of a fast pace as well as having tactical speed in more slowly run ones. _________________ stotsfold going to be special this flat season.
watch out old 'uns, the 3yos are coming to get you!!
the giacoma derby was was superfast/ superslow and afleet alex came back to win the preakness and the belmont
the monarchos derby was superfast/superfast and point given won both the last two legs of teh triple crown
the pace and traffic of these types of races can sometimes create unlikely winners....as great as point given was even if he had raced his natural way there is a very very good chance that he would have lost the derby...the pace just carried monarchos to victory
i havent looked at the adjusted track time as the track was changing rapidly during the card
my best guess is that the winner will earn a 105 as that was what i projected him to run...it will be a questionable mark with the changing conditions...still believe the rail was strong after it dried out-this is what it does and maybe somebody can pm mordin on that one
winner is an honest horse and gives it his best every time...he beat a decent horse who loves every kind of surface but could be best at 8 or 9 f on grass...our turf division is pretty weak this year and hard spun could be the best turf miler we have....the rest of the three year old folks that i see are weak-last year it was a super strong class with bernadini and barbaro and solid turf horses
easy to project teofilo a winner but believe he would have been nailed near the wire -IF it was a superhot pace as you say..stalker types get beat here in this scenario-that is the beauty of horse racing and abnormal pace scenarios
the surprise package could be Brave Tin Soldier. This horse ran in the Middle Park against Dutch Art and was well hammered, but that was on soft ground which the horse isn't bred for. Fast ground on Thursday could see a different animal.....but the Guineas clearly wasn't an intended target as he wasn't given an entry. The poor show from Admiralofthefleet and Yellowstone have forced Tabor to look at other options.
I was just looking over Brave Tin Soldier's form this morning, and a random bunch of other horses that I remember seeing running at 2 last year. It only ever ran at 6F, but on nothing better than good. Will be interesting to see it over further, and on fast. Cockney Rebel and Vital Equine both have reasonable bits of form that might tempt me into e-w punts in the Guineas.
I stuck with Vital Equine, which paid out about 23 points for the place on the Tote, which was very nice. Sadly I abandoned the Rebel, being put off by Peslier and knowing it would undoubtedly be backed by all the chavs at the track (of which there were several thousand) due to the name. Gah! They were clearly both overpriced on their 2 year old form, which was decent enough. I actually haven't had a chance to watch the race again; I was down by the finishing line with an obstructed view and really thought Vital Equine was going to get it. _________________ Known as the catch of the camp.
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