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People who followed me at Cheltenham knew I had a stormer and that I was in form and people asking me about getting the website back up, I have been thinking and now I am back at home and on good terms with the old dot, I may have to open up the site in time for the start of Aintree, I will keep you posted on that, as people know I am in decent form and I have only had one bet since my awesome festival and that was Youmzain in the Sheema Classic at Nad Al Sheba, so people who want to keep the faith please do as this is only my 2nd bet since Cheltenham.
My focus is on the Irish National and the Irish National only, still keeping the warchest ready for Aintree, so have had 2 small bets in this race.
To be honest I think this is one of the most competitive renewals of this race for a long time and the British Contingent looks the strongest for a long time. You can make a case for a lot of the British horses without a doubt. Juveigneur's main aim I really think is the Betfred where he has been alotted 10 stone 12. I think that is the race that is his real target. He has a big weight here too. I think Distant Thunder could be there abouts I reckon too. Butlers Cabin, no horse who has won the Cheltenham 4 miler has ever gone on to win another race, that is off putting. Nine De Sivola was tanking along in the 4 miler when falling three out and off a light weight over a marathon distance which the horse loves, he could play a part, Ferdy likes to bring a horse or two over for this race and has a decent chance.
The Irish Contingent is headed by Kings Advocate, the pricewise selection, off 10 stone. Walsh is up too, first try at this trip and he is probably the biggest chance the Irish have in the race. Whyso Mayo, I cannot back him due to his jumping, he ploughed through the Cheltenham fences and ruined his chance of back to back Foxhunter wins. Oulart has not been in great form, however he is a spring horse and 2nd in this 12 months ago, however this is a much tougher renewal than 12 months ago and I can see him struggling. Kill Devil Hill intrigues me and will watch him and the owners 1st string Dix Villez ran a belter in the Galway Plate and may need this trip and he will be up there with the pace if not taking the field along.
Theres some big priced horses down the bottom there and of all of them bar the outsider I fancy, Chelsea Harbour interests me at 40s, this race has been the aim for him for sometime and I think he will stay but he did not jump great in the Sun Alliance, still a novice and they have a decent record in the race. The ground is a worry, but he interests me at the big prices.
The two I have gone for against the field are two British raiders. I have gone for a winner and an outsider at a juicy each way price. I will start with the each way shot at 33/1 and that is a horse I have followed all this season and that is Paul Keane's All In The Stars. I backed him big time for the Scottish National last season and have backed him every time he has ran bar last time at Cheltenham where he was just creeping into contention before getting hampered badly and that cost him the race and he was 22 lengths behind. He has good form, 5th in the Hennessy last season and ran well at Wincanton when staying on in a 3 mile contest, he needs a marathon trip as he is an out and out stayer, and 3 miles 5 furlongs will be perfect, Keane is a bit unsure about the ground but he is by Fourstars Allstar and I think he will handle the going. He is known to make a mistake and with his hold up tactics in a big field, there will be no room for error, however Fairyhouse is a easy jumping track I think and I do believe he has a valuable race in him over 3 miles plus. I am taking a chance with him at 33s but I just think he is a nicely weighted, should go on the ground and we have yet to see the best of him this season, I took the 33s with Boylesports who go FIRST FIVE. He is my lively outsider of the race.
However the horse I believe will win is Cloudy Lane, he is improving all the time. I have followed him all this season and all last and McCain has always thought a lot of this horse. He did not get off to the best of starts this season over fences but he has really took to it now and he is going to be a leading player. Tony Dobbin is a great booking and the 3 miles 5 on good ground will be right up his street. McCain has always said this horse will be a better horse on better ground after his win last year on heavy ground in the Fixed Brush Hurdle final at Haydock where I had a big win on him at 9/1 that day. Since then I have had him down as a chaser. He won the Kim Muir at the festival last time out, jumping oh so well and travelling oh so well. Once again I landed a nice bet on him. I had him down as a Sun Alliance contender at the start of the reason (see thread on Cheltenham ante post bets by Scouserg) I have followed him all this season, ignore his run in the Red Square Gold Cup at Haydock over 3 miles 4 furlongs, as it was simply too soft that day, he will be a different horse over a similar trip this time on better ground. He jumps well and races prominently, he may be mid division today over a longer trip but he has the more than capable Tony Dobbin on his back, this horse is still improving and he is my horse to be the winner of the 2007 Irish National with All In The Stars as my each way fancy.
I have only had small stakes on both of these horses as I am keeping myself locked and loaded for Aintree.
£10 win Cloudy Lane 12/1 (Coral)
£5 e/w All In The Stars 33/1 (Boylesports, FIRST FIVE)
Good luck to everyone today.
TTT _________________ Weird Al won't be out the 3 in the 2010 RSA Chase.
Great Endeavour will either win the RSA Chase or Mr Pipe will plot him to win the Jewson.
Sorry TTT but i simply cannot have Cloudy Lane, I don't think he'll stay.
No certainty as to the winner, looks a bit of a minefield to me, but i think Kerryhead Windfarm has a squeak of a place if returning to form and will be carrying my e/w money.
totally agree about the minefield part, but i just think this one still has more improvement and five of the last 10 winners have been out of the handicap, you will see a different horse over 3 miles 5 on good ground than you did when he ran a stinker over 3 miles 4 on soft.
Good luck with your fancy
TTT _________________ Weird Al won't be out the 3 in the 2010 RSA Chase.
Great Endeavour will either win the RSA Chase or Mr Pipe will plot him to win the Jewson.
Hi all...... I really cant see past Distant Thunder today, he has now had a few runs under his belt and i think he will improve on his run at Cheltenham. The going worries me slightly though.
Ross River, Chelsea Harbour and Whyso Mayo, all e/w small stakes at 25/1, 25/1 and 11/1 Paddy Power who are offering five places..... _________________ UNEXPECTED WINNER 2009 FLAT 10 TO FOLLOW COMPETITION!
Horrendous pile up three fences out - hope all involved are ok but it dosen't look too good I'm afraid _________________ Keep your words soft and sweet - you may have to eat them one day
Last edited by costa fox on Mon Apr 09, 2007 3:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
Well done AP and Butler`s Cabin that was fantastic! But the terrible pile up at the third last really marred the race. Hubby is now watching British Super Bikes , so can someone please let me know how the fallers are, it didn`t look very promising though for the 2 that didn`t get up, Sue
Great training performance by Johnjo. Anyone who saw the state that Butler's Cabin was in after the NH Chase would be amazed that he could come out 25 days later and win a Grand National.
The horrendous scenes at the 3rd last spoilt the race for me though.
[quote="Roselier"]Yeah, that whole stat about the NH Chase winner not going on to win afterwards is b****cks.
What about 2000 winner Relaxation. He won a race after winning at the Festival. Who comes up with this rubbish?[/quote]
As did 1988 winner Over The Road (he won 3 further times), 1989 winner Boraceva only won a further seven races (I could go on) so TTT where do you get your info from because it is a rank source.
As far as I can tell Cheeky Lady fell bringing down Cloudy Lane, Dix Villez and A New Story - no further news at the moment _________________ Keep your words soft and sweet - you may have to eat them one day
The Irish Racing website has the result up but no details. What there is suggests that Cheeky Lady fell, bringing down Cloudy Lane, Dix Villez and A New Story. Full result as follows:
1st Butler's Cabin 10-4 Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy
14/1(John P McManus)
2nd 1L Nine De Sivola 10-0 Ferdy Murphy G Lee
12/1(The DPRP Sivola Partnership)
3rd 1 ¾L American Jennie 10-0 Michael Cullen N P Madden
33/1(L Murray)
4th 2L Church Island 10-4 Michael Hourigan Andrew J McNamara
66/1(B J Craig)
5th ¾L Dantes Reef 9-11 A J Martin R C Colgan(3)
33/1(T McGoldrick)
6th ½L Kings Advocate 10-0 T J Taaffe R Walsh
13/2 Fav (Conor Clarkson & Enda Hunston)
7th nk Oodachee 10-0 C F Swan D J Casey
33/1(Modreeny Syndicate)
8th 7L Distant Thunder 10-9 Noel T Chance R Johnson
10/1(Old Moss Farm)
9th 3L Well Tutored 10-0 A L T Moore P A Carberry
16/1(Michael Bailey)
10th 1L Chelsea Harbour 10-6(Incl 2lbs Ovw) Thomas Mullins D N Russell
33/1(Mrs Paul Duffin, Sean Corby & P M Brady)
11th shd G V A Ireland 9-7 F Flood S J Hassett(7)
66/1(Exors Late Donal O'Buachalla & C J Cronin)
12th 14L Gazza's Girl 9-12 Mrs John Harrington A D Leigh(3)
16/1(Patrick McCooey)
13th 3L Whyso Mayo 9-13 Raymond Hurley Mr D Murphy(5)
10/1(Mrs Kathleen O'Driscoll)
14th 4L Kerryhead Windfarm 10-1 Michael Hourigan D F O'Regan
33/1(James R Browne)
15th 5L Omni Cosmo Touch 9-11 Henry De Bromhead R M Moran(3)
66/1(Alan Potts)
16th nk Oulart 9-7 D T Hughes C D Maxwell(7)
12/1(G T Pierse)
17th 4 ½L Marcus Du Berlais 9-11 A L T Moore A E Lynch(3)
100/1(Marcus Beresford, Richard Keatinge & Miss Mary M O'Connor)
b.d. Dix Villez 10-0 Paul Nolan P W Flood
16/1(Gigginstown House Stud)
b.d. Cloudy Lane 10-0 D McCain Jnr A Dobbin
11/1(Trevor Hemmings)
p.u. All In The Stars 10-0 D P Keane N P Mulholland
33/1(Mrs H R Cross)
b.d. A New Story 10-0 Michael Hourigan Miss N Carberry
16/1(Storey's Over Syndicate)
p.u. Cane Brake 11-7 T J Taaffe A B Joyce(7)
20/1(Mount Temple Two Racing Synd)
p.u. One Four Shannon 10-0 D J Ryan T G M Ryan
66/1(David Pierce)
p.u. Patsy Hall 10-6 Michael Cunningham R M Power
25/1(C P Byrne)
fell Cheeky Lady 9-7 C A Murphy S W Flanagan(7)
25/1(B D B C Ltd)
p.u. Ross River 10-3 A J Martin J W Farrelly(7)
33/1(Seamus Ross)
p.u. Kill Devil Hill 11-0 Paul Nolan J L Cullen
66/1(Gigginstown House Stud)
p.u. Juveigneur 11-8 N J Henderson M A Fitzgerald
9/1(Trevor Hemmings)
p.u. Mac Three 10-0 Noel Meade P Carberry
33/1(Mrs Moira McGrath)
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