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What did you learn at Aintree? - 2007
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borismo
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2007 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Detroit city isnt himself and could drift to a very attractive price for next years CH.
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Roselier
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2007 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've learned that the National never ceases to send a tingle down my spine, never fails to make you fall in love with it even deeper than you did so before.

The GC may be the blue ribband but the National has always and will always mean so so much more.

It's our race to stop a nation and as a spectacle it puts the Melbourne Cup far in the shade.
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Binge
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2007 11:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That Aintree's Festival is only second to the THE Festival.

That Mighty Man is the best staying hurdler around for the second season running (only 7 ride him positively at Cheltenham next year and he'll scoop the Stayers Hurdle - listening Dickie?)

Water the course for a safe National but don't over water it to the extent that genuine Spring horses miss out on their ground.

Peter Bowen's in form

Mcklevey's great (will win the National next year if tendon injury is nothing serious - Dunbrody Millar to come off the bench if Mckelvey has to sit it out.)

Kawagino will never win a top hurdling event but you just have to love him - he deserves a decent prize.

Aces Four - super horse, belongs in the top staying chases next season.

Exotic Dancer - you are good away from Cheltenham, deservedly the second best chaser.

The BBC - it's all been said already!
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EdredonBleu
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 7:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Binge wrote:
Peter Bowen's in form

Mcklevey's great (will win the National next year if tendon injury is nothing serious - Dunbrody Millar to come off the bench if Mckelvey has to sit it out.)


Ballycassidy ran great, too! Just a pity that Mr O'Regan got his angles all wrong at the canal turn. He clearly loves the track, led over the last allbeit without a jockey! As a 12 year old next year maybe his best chance of glory has now gone sadly.
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david-uk
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 7:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Confirms Exotic Dancer is a brilliant horse and without Kauto Star he would have been a gold cup and KG winner running in the betfair bowl at 2/1!!

Apart from the National almost all the races were off on time, well done to the Handlers at the start.

JA Mcgrath - Time to retire.

Monets Garden will win the Champion Chase 2008.
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RightJudgeIam
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 7:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Massinis Maguire doesn't stay 3 miles and nor does BJK.

Denman, based on Aces Four, is an absolute monster.

2 mile hurdling division 2008 wide open. Iktitaf to be supported.

The Gold Cup (apart from ED & KS) was a weak heat. Expect the also- rans to struggle to win a race between them, and the 2008 GC to be dominated by KS, ED and Denman. Throw in MWDS and what a race that could be (could produce a very high rating)

The Arkle form is very strong, lots of wins to come from it,including possibly at Ayr or Punchestown.

That getting beaten in a 0-115 handicap chase at Wetherby doesn't stop a horse winning off 17lb higher when it's over the National fences.

Nicholls has a poor record at Aintree. Only his standout banker of the meeting won.

Horse I'd most like to own - Tidal Bay (dreaming of Gold Cup 2009 glory Mr Wylie?)

Never back Our Vic again (even though I love him)

ante post for 2008 (based on Chelt & Aintree)
Gold Cup - Denman
Champion Hurdle - Iktitaf
RSA Chase - Tidal Bay
QMCC - Twist Magic
Stayers - Kasbah Bliss
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geordie_racer
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think I learned that

[a] I was right that BJK isnt all that good
[b] an extra week between Aintree and cheltenham is good for the Aintree event, and should be kept
[c] the management of the turf condition is better at aintree than at cheltenham
[e] monets garden willo win big races but not at cheltenham
[f] exotic dancer is a top quality horse,, and thus
[g] his two wins over exotic dancer confirm what a superstart kauto star is
[h] blythe knight wil make a top class hurdler next season
[i] the national is still a fantastic event
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kickingkyle
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 7:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RJI will you be backing Iktitaf if he goes to Punchestown? I certainyl will as i have done in the past.
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RightJudgeIam
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I backed him at Cheltenham, KK. Would have won!!

Will certainly look at him for Punchestown but I am VERY interested in him for next year in th CH. Dont see any from this years race beating him next year and no serious contenders have emerged (including Katchit who has very little chance in 2008)
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alansouthcoast
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That the day two placepot was awesome considering 5 favs got placed.
£194.00
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alansouthcoast
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Owl of Minerva wrote:
I learnt that if you are going to put a big antepost bet on a 40/1 shot, the you should probably do it each way.

Otherwise, when the horse fails to get up by 3/4 of a length in the worlds most famous steeplechase, one is left feeling rather annoyed!!

Owl


Owl i often have the same problem but dont like doing Antepost bets E/w.
The way i get round this is to indeed do an E/ew bet with the place part just enough to cover my outlay.
On your bet i would have done £16 win and £2 E/w the place would have paid 10/1 and covered your outlay. Still not as good as winning but a free £18 win bet none the less.
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kickingkyle
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That was good Alan, i didnt touch the placepot and quite glad as i would of gotthe 1st 4 up and then nothing.
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YAIYAM
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

alansouthcoast wrote:
Owl of Minerva wrote:
I learnt that if you are going to put a big antepost bet on a 40/1 shot, the you should probably do it each way.

Otherwise, when the horse fails to get up by 3/4 of a length in the worlds most famous steeplechase, one is left feeling rather annoyed!!

Owl


Owl i often have the same problem but dont like doing Antepost bets E/w.
The way i get round this is to indeed do an E/ew bet with the place part just enough to cover my outlay.
On your bet i would have done £16 win and £2 E/w the place would have paid 10/1 and covered your outlay. Still not as good as winning but a free £18 win bet none the less.



i know some people do not have Betfair accounts or do not like using them for some reason but on a race like the GN where they have been betting Place only for along time surely if you are going to have £50 on a 40/1 Ante post then you would have £20 @ 40/1 to win(bookies) and put £30 on the Place at around the 10/1 mark even on the off yesterday where he was 12/1 for the win you could still get 9/2 for it TBP which could have easily covered any stake you had placed earlier for it to win AP
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Swagger
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The following to be taken into account before backing a horse for the grand national:

- Horse has had a prep of at least 4 runs in the season before the national.
- The horse has won either a group or listed race over fences.
- Is NOT a French bred (how on earth did Monkerhostin get backed into joint favourite, it was comical ). Roselier would suely tell you that they generally aren't bred to appreciate a trip of 4 1/2 miles.
- Weight not over 11 stone (Hedgehunter was a top class horse and a one off looking back over recent years)


Asian Maze has always been overrated, her win in last years Aintree Hurdle wasn't all that - she beat an ill Hardy Eustice, a lame Al Eile and an overrated Sky's The Limit. Done NOTHING this season.

Arcalis is coming back to his best on good ground, but doesn't stay 2 1/2 miles.

Twist Magic/Monet's Garden for the Champion Chase next season.

Exotic Dancer is a top class Group 1 horse, again boosting the form of Kauto Star.

Mighty Man rules around Aintree and BJK isn't a superstar over 3 miles but would be interesting over 2 miles.

I hate Becher's Brook - done me with Ned Kelly and Bewleys Berry when both were cruising.

Roselier knows his breeding - thanks for Philson Run again pal.

Well Chief may never recapture his old form.

Alan is a legend for running the Aintree comp.

Regards to all.
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Roselier
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only thing I would say about French bred horses is that Roselier was himself a french bred horse and he has had two Grand National winners (3 Scottish, 3 Welsh and an Irish) but was a stallion in Ireland so therefore the French can't claim him! Mind you it is Irish mares that have helped most of them to stay.

Let's hope Ossmoses makes it there safe and sound next year.


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