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What did you learn at Aintree? - 2007
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alansouthcoast
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yaiyam while i agree with what you say about the national. I often find Betfair very poor for tbp odds.
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theGoingStick
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

alansouthcoast wrote:
Yaiyam while i agree with what you say about the national. I often find Betfair very poor for tbp odds.


I've found with betfair the odds at the top of the field (i.e. closer to the favourite) are about the same as the bookies, but the bigger priced runners you definately get better odds on betfair on the place and win markets. But you always have to watch your commision !!!
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YAIYAM
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

alansouthcoast wrote:
Yaiyam while i agree with what you say about the national. I often find Betfair very poor for tbp odds.


If it is a on the day decision then generally i think people get impatient and do not wait until the last 10 minutes before the off when the big players get involved as they do not want 10's of thousands of pounds tied up longer than need be.
If it is on the AP market for something like the National then basically just put the price you want up(within reason) and leave it it will in most cases be taken.
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kickingkyle
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

theGoingStick wrote:
alansouthcoast wrote:
Yaiyam while i agree with what you say about the national. I often find Betfair very poor for tbp odds.


I've found with betfair the odds at the top of the field (i.e. closer to the favourite) are about the same as the bookies, but the bigger priced runners you definately get better odds on betfair on the place and win markets. But you always have to watch your commision !!!


EG Dunbrody Millar was generally 40s on betfair not 25-1. Same could be said about the TOTE aswell.
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YAIYAM
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

alansouthcoast wrote:
Yaiyam while i agree with what you say about the national. I often find Betfair very poor for tbp odds.



The other thing people do not take into account is the adjustment you have to make for not having to place a win bet as well also the TBP market is always very good on the big handicaps with the over 16 runners if as i said you take Mckelvey as an example he went off 12/1 which is 3/1 for a place with a bookie where as he was holding at between 4/1 - 9/2 right up until the off.
Or in the case of the horse i did yesterday Dancing Lyra who was 50/1 which is 12.5/1 for the place i averaged out at 13.5/1 because i got some on @ 15.0-20.0 although most was at 12.5 now i did not put anything on the win for this horse and yes some people may fell a bit guuted if it did win and you had nothing on the win but i view it as a 13.5/1 winner wether 1st or 4th.
The only horse i can really remeber where this happened at a big price was Shamayoun in last years Fred Winter as i backed it heavy for a place and had nothing on the win
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theGoingStick
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The other thing to note is that betfair won't go five places when other firms will on big handicaps !!!
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kickingkyle
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Other firms won give you 4 places if 2 pull out of a 16 runner h cap though. Swings and round abouts!
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theGoingStick
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2007 1:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kickingkyle wrote:
Other firms won give you 4 places if 2 pull out of a 16 runner h cap though. Swings and round abouts!


That's very true !!! They'll all happily take deductions for N/Rs though !!!


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