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why are you going to lay off bets that are going your way in running?
i find it much more difficult to find value prices in running than pre kick off, so by laying off bets i am basically taking what i thought was a high value original bet and spoiling it with a fair/poor value in running bet - and then letting bad (retrospectively) original bets run.
assuming in running prices are generally about right (which i think is a fairer assumption than pre match prices, but this is open to debate) the net effect over time of laying off bets IR will be zero, so in my view you may as well keep your original value bet, and if it goes your way have an in running beer to celebrate.
just my £0.02.
AJ
Just depends how the game is going I guess and whether I'm happy to lay at the price. In the case of the game this weekend I was quite happy to lay off as I thought 1) Spurs were a goal threat and 2) I was happy to lay @ 1.74 having been matched @ 3.55 meaning a free bet @ 2.8. I said before the game that I thoought 2.8 was the right price for West Ham anyway so to get that price for free made sense to me. 3) I also found that my confidence in West Ham in the hour leading up to the game had diminished somewhat so I was happy to get out.
And rightly or wrongly I guess I also take the view that a team is usually a shade underpriced straight after they score too, so not a bad time to trade.
But you may well be right - like I say on the thread I am not an overly experienced football gambler and am willing to make mistakes/learn as I go along. So thanks for the feedback - will give it some consideration!
i tend to take the view that before the match, everyone is playing on a level playing field, whereas in running certain players have an informational/technological advantage, and so are able to hoover up value quick sharp, leaving the really tradable prices correct - ie devoid of value either way.
i'm not saying it will cost you over time to lay off in running (although i tend to think it does when it comes to my football bets) but i can't see that it will add any value - in which case just let it ride
like i say, just my opinion, and just on football.
i tend to take the view that before the match, everyone is playing on a level playing field, whereas in running certain players have an informational/technological advantage, and so are able to hoover up value quick sharp, leaving the really tradable prices correct - ie devoid of value either way.
i'm not saying it will cost you over time to lay off in running (although i tend to think it does when it comes to my football bets) but i can't see that it will add any value - in which case just let it ride
like i say, just my opinion, and just on football.
AJ
Perhaps in order to be consistent with football bets one should either never lay off or always lay off . . .
in principle the only reason to take a bet for anything other than fun is if a price is noticeably different to what you think it should be.
i wouldn't want to judge others by my own limitations, but from my own experience, finding "wrong prices" in running is much more difficult - so you are either laying at the right price (pointless long term) or at the wrong price in the backer's favour due to the value getting sucked - self defeating.
i think it's a comfort thing - free bet/reduce risk/green up etc etc - but really it's very difficult and you're betting against bots and people with endless resources of in running statistics and likelihoods etc - it's unlikely that you're (not you specifically) outsmarting them.
have a bet, grab a beer, watch the game, or even better go to the pub and check the scores when you get in. you won't be missing out on much value in play.
I think you're probably right - it is mostly a comfort thing. One of the reasons I prefer to back horses with bookies rather than betfair is that you don't have as much temptation to pussy out of the bet by laying off when the price contracts etc. If I bet with betfair I often spend loads of time looking at the market for tiny movements to see if I can trade in and out again to lock in profit. Much better to snaffle the early value and then walk away happy in the knowledge that you have value. Plus it stops you being a loser spending hourse in front of a computer screen when there are far better things you could be doing!
accajacca wrote:
can't see that this helps to be honest.
in principle the only reason to take a bet for anything other than fun is if a price is noticeably different to what you think it should be.
i wouldn't want to judge others by my own limitations, but from my own experience, finding "wrong prices" in running is much more difficult - so you are either laying at the right price (pointless long term) or at the wrong price in the backer's favour due to the value getting sucked - self defeating.
i think it's a comfort thing - free bet/reduce risk/green up etc etc - but really it's very difficult and you're betting against bots and people with endless resources of in running statistics and likelihoods etc - it's unlikely that you're (not you specifically) outsmarting them.
have a bet, grab a beer, watch the game, or even better go to the pub and check the scores when you get in. you won't be missing out on much value in play.
I think you're probably right - it is mostly a comfort thing. One of the reasons I prefer to back horses with bookies rather than betfair is that you don't have as much temptation to pussy out of the bet by laying off when the price contracts etc. If I bet with betfair I often spend loads of time looking at the market for tiny movements to see if I can trade in and out again to lock in profit. Much better to snaffle the early value and then walk away happy in the knowledge that you have value. Plus it stops you being a loser spending hourse in front of a computer screen when there are far better things you could be doing!
accajacca wrote:
can't see that this helps to be honest.
in principle the only reason to take a bet for anything other than fun is if a price is noticeably different to what you think it should be.
i wouldn't want to judge others by my own limitations, but from my own experience, finding "wrong prices" in running is much more difficult - so you are either laying at the right price (pointless long term) or at the wrong price in the backer's favour due to the value getting sucked - self defeating.
i think it's a comfort thing - free bet/reduce risk/green up etc etc - but really it's very difficult and you're betting against bots and people with endless resources of in running statistics and likelihoods etc - it's unlikely that you're (not you specifically) outsmarting them.
have a bet, grab a beer, watch the game, or even better go to the pub and check the scores when you get in. you won't be missing out on much value in play.
Personally I don't think all sports are right for betting in running or at least not the same, I would never ever contemplate doing Tennis betting in any other way than trading in and out or greening up then leaving it, Golf is similar but not totally the same.
Racing I just cannot see why people do not leave very low lays as it makes so little difference to the actual potential winnings but can be so much more profitable for when your runners get caught close home. _________________ Forest are Treemendous
absolutely agree it's different for different sports - i can only really talk with any level of experience about football. i do tend to put lays up with my horse racing punts for the reasons you describe.
I know it's an international week but I have a wedding to attend so no BOTN this week I'm afraid as don't have time to do a full write up. For what it's worth I will be backing both Israel and Azerbaijan today _________________ You're born with nothing, and better off that way,
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