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so a good chance we will have good ground tomorrow then? anyone have turftrax readings? if we do get genuinely good ground tomorrow i'll be getting stuck into asiatic boy _________________ Is ready to hibernate
so a good chance we will have good ground tomorrow then? anyone have turftrax readings? if we do get genuinely good ground tomorrow i'll be getting stuck into asiatic boy
There's a fair bit of rain forecast for tonight though according to Turftrax...
Duke of Marmalade - Ballydoyle second string, consistent performer over a mile, should enjoy the step up in trip, perhaps not quite top class though. Receives the 3yo allowance.
Authorized - Beaten last time, and no matter what anyone says, disappointing. Perhaps wants further than 10f. Reportedly back in derby winning form, forecast rain in his favour, and has obvious claims. Has a few pounds taken off for the 3yo allowance, obviously in his favour.
Asiatic Boy - top class horse in Dubai, needs it rock hard, unlikely to get that. Ran well enough in defeat, and probably aimed at this race anyway. Still, the ground is a major put off for me. Has also never run at 10f and strikes me as a miler.
Notnowcato - Doesn't know how to run a bad race. Handy to have on your side if its tactical, hasn't got a reputation as a world beater unlike some of the others in this race and often looked over because of this; has an excellent shout on the likely rain softened ground.
Hattan - Very difficult to think he is up to this level, price reflects this.
Dylan Thomas - Top class animal, won't want too much rain, disappointed on softish ground in this race last year, still, as long as it doesn't rain too much he should be thereabouts. Perhaps the step down in trip not quite in his favour.
So then, it boils down to, for me, the big 4: Dylan Thomas; Notnowcato; Authorized and Asiatic Boy. If it rains heavily we can discount Dylan and Asiatic Boy, if it rains only a little I'd say just to discount Asiatic Boy. No rain and all 4 have a shout.
Personally, I will be backing Notnowcato as he is bound to be around there at the finish, and all the others have a few question marks against them (ie. None are sure to like the 10f), this guy has no negatives at all, he just isn't as spectacular in victory as the others. _________________ I'm finding it hard to believe we're in heaven
I was intrigued to see what evidence there was in Asiatic Boy's pedigree that might suggest he is not just a miler. His sire NOT FOR SALE was essentially a miler and his dam's side was inconclusive after a brief perusal. However I did find that he is line-bred to two horses - SWAPS on the sire's side and BUSANDA on his dam's. He also has DAMASCUS on the dam's side who won the Woodward Stakes over a mile and a half by 10 lengths, beating BUCKPASSER who is also to be found in the pedigree.
I reproduce these race records because it gives some credence to the Boy getting the Juddmonte trip and because I had not heard of these fabulous racehorses! There is some speed from DANZIG but to an uneducated eye the influences appear predominantly middle distance.
Tomorrow I am worried about the ground for Asiatic Boy, as stated by others no rain please, his action is so fluid I can see him being bogged down. However his fascinating pedigree is worth looking at anyway even if he doesn't win tomorrow - but I hope he does
SWAPS from PedigreeQuery site
Quote:
Winnings: 25 Starts: 19 - 2 - 2, $848,900
At 2: Won June Juvenile Stakes; 3RD Westchester Stakes, Haggin Stakes.
At 3: Won Kentucky Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Californian Stakes, Westerner Stakes, American Derby, Will Rogers Stakes, San Vicente Stakes; 2nd Washington Park Match Rase (vs. Nashua).
At 4: Won Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap, Sunset Handicap (T), American Handicap, Washington Park Handicap, Argonaut Handicap, Inglewood Handicap; 2ND Californian Stakes.
Champion Handicap Male & HOY at 4.
Set five world records at a mile or more.
At 3 - NWR Hollywood Park 8.5f 1:40.2; NTR and EAR Washington Park 9.5f 1:54.
At 4 - EWR Hollywood Park 9f 1:46.4; NTR Hollywood Park 10f 1:58.3; NTR Washington Park 8f 1:33.2; NTR and NWR Gulfstream Park 8.32f 1:39.3; NTR and NWR Hollywood Park 13f 2:38.1; NWR Hollywood Park 8f 1:33.1; NTR and NWR Hollywood Park 8.5f 1:39.
Died in 1972.
Grand dam sire DAMASCUS from Time
Quote:
It took only two minutes in the $107,800 Woodward Stakes at New York's Aqueduct race track to convince the few remaining doubters that Mrs. Edith Bancroft's Damascus is 1967's top three-year-old. That became abundantly clear when Damascus flashed under the wire a good 10½lengths ahead of Dr. Fager, who beat him in the Gotham Stakes this April. And that was the least of the triumphs. In their first meeting at the Woodward, Damascus put a quick end to all speculation about whether he was a better—or at least sounder—horse than Ogden Phipps's four-year-old Buckpasser, winner of 25 of 31 starts and racing's third-greatest (at $1,462,014) money winner. By the quarter pole, Damascus had opened a five-length lead on Buckpasser; at the finish, the margin was an incredible ten lengths and growing with every stride.
In a sense, it was the coup de grace for mighty Buckpasser. Soon after the race, Trainer Eddie Neloy announced that the strapping horse would run no more, would retire to stud in Kentucky. It seemed a sound decision. Since early last year, Buckpasser has been afflicted by painful cracks in his right forehoof; this year, the condition became chronic, and without making excuses, said Neloy, "it definitely compromised his abilities in the Woodward."
Testing the Temper. No such ailments seem likely to cut short Damascus' career. Sired by Sword Dancer, himself a two-time winner of the Woodward, Damascus is as sound as his steely name and just beginning to test his temper. In his first campaign last season, he won three out of four starts and $25,865 in purses. So far in 1967, he has won 11 out of 14, including both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Winnings this year: $723,651, which puts him within easy reach of the one-year record of $752,550 set by Nashua way back in 1955.
If Damascus has any flaws, they are the kind that a shrewd trainer and top jockey can handle. Unlike Kelso, who was practically a pet around the stable, Damascus has a high-strung, rankish personality that sometimes loses races. Favored at 17-10 odds in the Kentucky Derby, he was already sweating before the start, folded in the stretch, and wound up third. To keep him calm in the stable, Trainer Frank Whiteley has now put a radio in his stall; Whiteley also dips the colt's protective leg bandages in a peppery solution to stop him from chewing on them. And to ease pre-race jitters, Damascus is usually the last to enter the track, parades to the post in the soothing company of an old lead pony called Duffy.
Once out of the gate, says Jockey Willie Shoemaker, Damascus has all the heart anybody could want, is at his best running off the pace, then comes on strong in the stretch. The one problem is to prevent him from loafing a bit once he gets out in front. "You have to keep after Damascus, and when you do, no horse can beat him." says Shoemaker. "This colt is as good as any I've ever ridden."
BUCKPASSER from PedigreeQuery site
Quote:
Winnings: 31 Starts: 25 - 4 - 1, $1,462,014
1965: Won Arlington-Washington Futurity, Champagne, Hopeful, Sapling, Tremont, National Stallion S.
1966: Won Flamingo, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Brooklyn, Chicagoan, American Derby, Arlington Classic, Everglades, Woodward, Leonard Richards, Malibu, Lawrence Realization, Travers
1967: Suburban, Metropolitan, San Fernando
Horse of the Year 1966; Champion 2YO Colt; Champion 3YO Colt; Champion Handicap Male. Inducted into Hall of Fame 1970. Prominent broodmare sire.
Buckpasser died in 1978, buried at Claiborne Farm.
_________________ Greet people with four kisses - one for each cheek... Duke Ellington
great work wmh!! i was more worried about the ground than the distance, i think he'll get it no problem, well he would have on good ground or better, if it rains tonight he may as well be pulled, such a shame - he would have had these no problem imo _________________ Is ready to hibernate
Personally, I will be backing Notnowcato as he is bound to be around there at the finish, and all the others have a few question marks against them (ie. None are sure to like the 10f), this guy has no negatives at all, he just isn't as spectacular in victory as the others.
Great summary Paddy, and I agree entirely with your verdict. I've backed him to win, and I'm sure I'll get a decent run for my money. Seems ridiculous that the previous year's winner, who has already beaten Authorized and Dylan T and run solidly all season, should be behind them in the betting.
I would prefer Authorized over DT if I had to choose, I think. _________________ Known as the catch of the camp.
gee bloody whizz, folks, I'm 42 years old and I've hardly had a bet worthy of the name in the last 15 years - I did it all when I was meant to be at university (you'll be pleased to know I never did turn up for my exams...) and I was decent, made some money out of backing reasoned hunches (I can't allow myself to call it anything more scientific than that) because I LOOKED at races, how they were run, set up, the rest of it.
So today I put my biggest bet ever on Authorized (not much in some people's eyes, but to me £250 is a big, big sum), mainly because I've got a decent job and could afford financially to lose my stake: but I'd've felt crushed if my judgement had been wrong. I was convinced (and I'm so full of joy, so apologies for being a bit blowy) that Authorized would love York, and in a thread in the spring I said if they met, Cockney Rebel would win the Eclipse and Authorized would win the Juddmonte - it's just the way the courses are configured. Only truly great 12 furlong horses win the Eclipse. But 12f horses can, and actually should, win the B&H (as it was in my day).
Sorry if this has been said somewhere else in this board, I've not had time to read it (just got home) but I thought Dylan Thomas ran a stormer, and I haven't rated him so much. And it's a big, big boost for the Derby, proving that if you've got a good horse you CAN go on. I felt Motivator got a lot of unjustified slagging, and too many people were (lazily) saying that Authorized was just another in a long line of losers. (If North Light had gone for the Leger, we wouldn't be saying that Derby winners can't win subsequent races).
Anyhow, the other reason I'm being a bit loud is that YouTube has got some Cheltenham Gold Cups of the 1980s (including 1980, Tied Cottage's race) so it's been a great day. Oh, and it's the Ebor tomorrow - how good can life get?
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