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Tagalie · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 7:52 am Post subject:

I'm still in a sulk about this race, having been at York for the M****** fiasco last year. Not really tempted to have a dabble, but the following are interesting I think:

Group Captain (still smarting about not backing it in its last win, due to hungover laziness)- has a bit of class
Peppertree Lane- solid and consistent
Solent- respectable e-w shout
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Swagger · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:41 pm Post subject:

This was my summary of the Ebor:

Amount the horses improved from their OR to win the Ebor (I hope my maths are correct!)
2006 Mudawin +13
2005 Sergeant Cecil +13
2004 Mephisto +11
2003 Saint Alebe +10
2002 Hugs Dancer +11
2001 Mediterranean +11
2000 Give the Slip +11
1999 Vicious Circle +14
1998 Tuning +8
1997 Far Ahead +5

So over the last 8 years a horse who has won the Ebor has on average run 11.75 lbs above their original rating.

Having looked through the runners, i could well be wrong but from the 20 declared i believe only one from the following list have a chance of winning based on them being able to run 12 lbs off their current mark; (This is obviously subjective and merely my opinion)

- Group Captain
- Purple Moon
- Honolulu
- Ogee
- Tranquil Tiger
- Minkowski

Since 1997 the dam's stamina influence has been of at least 10.0 furlongs. So using this fact, i am ruling out Group Captain, Tranquil Tiger.

This leaves us with;

- Purple Moon
- Honolulu
- Ogee
- Minkowski

I won't put anyone off Ogee if you fancy it, but my personal view is Stoute hasn't done well in this race of late and i'm not sure how much more improvement this horse has off his current mark.

Some other stats that i found for this race;
9/10 - Trained in the UK
9/10 - Carried 8-12 or less
7/10 - Returned a double-figure price
7/10 - Ran in the top 4 in their previous run
6/10 - Aged 4 years-old or older
3/10 - Ran at Goodwood in their previous race
2/10 - Trained by Luca Cumani
1/10 - Won by the favourite
10/10 - Ran 14 races or less before the Ebor

The stat about being trained in the UK i really can't have. Firstly how many horses have tried to win this race outside of the UK and i don't see what relevance this has if the horse has the correct breeding to take this race anyway.

The weight stat is also quite a damning statistic but i'm not sure of how much relevance this is these days with better class of horse contesting the big handicaps in recent years,e.g. Mephisto won the Ebor off 9 stone 4 pounds in 2004.

I therefore think the winner comes from my final shortlist of;
- Purple Moon
- Honolulu
- Minkowski

I backed MINKOWSKI late last night at 16/1 (he was that price across the boards). Unfortunately he has since been heavily backed although i have taken some more of the current best price of 12/1 as i would be surprised if he is bigger than 8/1 tomorrow. I think there could be a huge market move for him and can see him going off at 6/1. It is no coincidence Ladbrokes only offer 10/1 - this horse is owned by Michael Tabor and i think they know.

I am quite into my French horse racing, more so than any country outside of England during the flat season.

This was Minkowski's first race:

LONGCHAMP
30 April 2006
Good To Soft
1:15 Prix Beachcomber Hotels "Dinarobin" (Prix Juigne) (Unraced Colts & Geldings) (3yo) 1m2f
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Minkowski (GB) J E Hammond 3 9-2 T Gillet 72/10 89 88
2 shd Getaway (GER) A Fabre 3 9-2 O Peslier 88 88
3 4 Pointilliste (USA) E Lellouche 3 9-2 S Pasquier 81 81
4 4 Loup Mysterieux E Lellouche 3 9-2 — 73
5 1 Al Buraq (IRE) J-M Beguigne 3 9-2 — 72
6 ½ Paktolos C Laffon-Parias 3 9-2 — 71
7 5 Brassai (FR) A De Royer-Dupre 3 9-2 — 62
8 2½ Countersign J E Pease 3 9-2 — 57
9 6 Maximo (GER) R Gibson 3 9-2 — 46

He then ran a good race over another inadequate trip against a few familar names:

CHANTILLY
10 May 2006
Very Soft
1:35 Prix du Mont Pagnotte (Colts & Geldings) (3yo) (1m2f110y) 1m2½f
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Lauro (GER) P Schiergen 3 9-0 W Mongil 69 103
2 2 Rail Link (GB) A Fabre 3 8-10 C Soumillon 6/1 61 96
3 nk Vendangeur (IRE) E Lellouche 3 8-10 S Pasquier 60 95
4 2 Balius (IRE) C Laffon-Parias 3 9-0 — 95
5 3 Latrobe (USA) J E Pease 3 8-10 — 86
6 1 Minkowski (GB) J E Hammond 3 9-0 T Gillet 7/1 — 88
7 shd Touching The Void (IRE) A Fabre 3 8-10 — 84
8 snk Customary (GB) Mme C Head-Maarek 3 9-4 — 92
9 3 Gallo´s Wells (IRE) J-P Gallorini 3 8-10 — 78
10 5 El Capitano C Lerner 3 9-0 — 73
11 Great Gorge (USA) Rod Collet 3 9-0 — 73

Both of which were good runs, bearing in mind he needs a longer trip, and, although a weak race, he duly bolted up over his first try over 1 mile 4 furlongs;

DIEPPE
20 June 2007
Very Soft
12:07 Prix Colonel B Marlin (Gentleman Amateurs) (4yo+) 1m4f
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Minkowski (GB) J E Hammond 4 10-6 Mr E Selter 11/10F — —
2 5 Barbazan X Nakkachdji 9 10-6 Mr R Dubois — —
3 2½ Ecos De L´Orme Ron Caget 4 10-6 Mr T Marlin — —
4 2 Grey Glitters P Demercastel 7 10-6 Mr D Cottin — —
8 Permanent Way (IRE) Mme C Head-Maarek 4 10-5 Mr E Monfort 14/1
RP: Minkowski - always in touch, led entering straight, easily

He also ran a cracking race in his last run over an inadequate trip:

CHANTILLY
26 July 2007
Good
2:35 Prix de l'Hemicycle (4yo+) 1m2f
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Musketier (GER) P Bary 5 9-1 C-P Lemaire 105 106
2 hd Rhenus (GB) A Fabre 4 8-11 S Pasquier 101 102
3 ½ Green Shadow J Van Handenhove 6 8-8 T Huet 97 98
4 1 Minkowski (GB) J E Hammond 4 8-11 J Auge 5/1 — 99
5 nk Solsiste (GB) J-M Beguigne 6 8-11 — 99
6 4 Voltmeter (IRE) E Lellouche 5 9-1 — 96
7 3 Ocamiros (GER) Frau A Bertram 4 8-11 — 86
8 1 Queen Of Saba (GB) Brigitte Renk 4 8-8 — 81
9 ½ Elguera Noir R Laplanche 5 8-11 — 83
10 8 Desmounia A Voraz 4 8-8 — 66
0 Botega H Hosselet 4 8-5 (3) — —
0 Perle Irlandaise Mme A E Gareau 4 8-8 — —
0 Karassulis (IRE) Mme N Rossio 4 8-5 (6) — —
0 Kusturica (IRE) Mme N Rossio 4 8-8 (3) — —
RP: Minkowski - held up in rear on outside, ridden and switched inside approaching final furlong, finished well

The horse to note in this race is VOLTMETER as Minkowski turned the form around in a big way from a precious encounter this season:

SAINT-CLOUD
10 May 2007
Good To Soft
3:20 Prix de l'Hippodrome de Vittel (Lady Riders) (4yo+) (1m2f110y) 1m2½f
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Voltmeter (IRE) E Lellouche 5 9-7 Miss Celine Monfort 64 99
2 ½ Minkowski (GB) J E Hammond 4 9-2 Mlle S Husser 2/1F 58 93
3 ½ Kasali (IRE) J-P Gallorini 6 9-2 Mlle P Boisgontier 57 92
4 2½ Top Seven (IRE) D Smaga 4 8-13 — 85
5 2½ Sol Invictus F Belmont 4 9-2 — 83
6 2 Bloke (IRE) R Gibson 4 9-2 — 80
7 2 Thomamix D Prod´Homme 4 9-2 — 76
8 20 Vaguely Sure (USA) A Bonin 4 9-2 b — 40

This would suggest Minkowski improved or Voltmeter underperformed in their encounter at Chantily - Probably a bit of both. But note that Voltmeter had achieved an RPR of 106 and 102 before Minkowski turned the form around, so i think there is plenty of improvement to come from the latter and he is a good deal better than the RPR he has achieved to date. I also believe he will improve for the step up in trip and his first run over 1 mile 6 furlongs.

Lets get back to the run at Longcham where Minkowski beat Getaway. The latter achieved RPR's of 88 in races up to 1 mile 4 furlongs. When he was stepped up in trip to 1 mile 4 furlongs + he has since achieved RPR's of 106, 110 and 114 last time out. Obviously being trained by Fabre and looking at his breeding he was always going to improve and you would have to think he would reverse the form with Minkowski now. But the point i am making is that Minkowski is open to so much improvement over the extended trip that i can see him making similar improvement to Getaway although it is unlikely to be as great as the latter has achieved this season.

I also ask why has Minkowski been running in these amatuer races in France with many of them over what would appear to be an inadequate trip, when he is clearly capable of running in better races over a more suitable trip?
I think this race has been plotted up by the owner, a one Michael Tabor, for this race. With the trainer John Hammond having had previous winners at this meeting, i think he has a tremendous chance tomorrow of winning the Ebor running off 8 stone 10 lbs.

The ground conditions will be perfect for him and he has a very solid if unspectacular jockey in the shape of Seb Saunders in the plate, who as we know is more than capable to do the steering.

Michael Tabor has two other runners, Hitchcock has no chance in my view but Honolulu is one of the 3 on my final shortlist and i may have a small Win bet on him at 10/1+ as he also looks interesting.

I will leave you with the Racing Post Spotlight who once again have stolen my thunder!

MINKOWSKI - Seen mostly at 1m last term and has still run only once much beyond 1m2f, but won that 1m4f amateurs event at Dieppe in June easily; that display and style of his other runs this season (all creditable) make him very interesting as well as unexposed overthis new trip and, by Galileo out of a Group 2 1m5.5f winner, it´s easy to make a case for him on paper.

Ladbrokes offer 16/1 on Hitchcock (biggest price) and offer 10/1 on both Honolulu and Minkowski which is almost the shortest priced available.

John Hammond, trainer of Minkowski
"I think he'd prefer softer ground as conditions at York seem to be drying. It is something of a shot in the dark for him - we'll see."
2 of the horse's 3 wins have come on Good to Soft in France which we all know often translates as Good ground in England.
Ryan Moore described it as good to soft today which would be backed up by the race times which also suggest the same, and with the relatively cold conditions it won't be faster than good ground tomorrow - if Minkowski underperforms tomorrow it will be due to a lack of ability not ground conditions, and i think the trainer knows that!

Also, it's worth noting down GETAWAY as he wins the Prix du Cadran (Sergeant Cecil won it last year) during the Arc weekend in my view.

My bet tomorrow: EBOR - Minkowski @ 16/1 EW (place to break even) & 12/1 EW (place to break even)

There are only a few bookies offering 12/1 on Minkowski, who will soon be biggest price 10/1, and 6/1SP

Regards to all.

shamardal84 · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:50 pm Post subject:

Great read Swagger, Im gonna have to back Minkowski now after all that effort you put in

But I must admit you put a great argument, and I agree he looks like he has a very good chance. I'll be getting on e/w also.
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gromero · Group Performer Joined: 23 Feb 2006 Posts: 3559

swagger

you have me totally convinced, good luck
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Swagger · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:09 pm Post subject:

Thanks guys, i am 'hopeful' of a good run as Aidan O'Brien would say. Gromoro - i know you follow the French form closely, what do you make of Getaway?

Regards.

gromero · Group Performer Joined: 23 Feb 2006 Posts: 3559

Well yeah I do like to follow the french racing, I wish I could say I am able to follow it closely, but it's hard enough to keep up with the English and Irish.
Having said that I do know Getaway quite well, being one of those horse's with the magical triplet of connections that I like so much, by Monsun, trained by Fabre and owned by the Baron

I saw his race at the weekend at Deauville, that was some reappearance after 11 months off the track and he definitely impressed when quickening away from the field. Is he definitely going for the Cadran now then? Lord Du Sud is a decent enough yardstick and if Getaway is to come on any from that run then he would be lengths in front of him. The Cadran is quite a big step up in trip though so I am not entirely sure he would definitely stay that far, if he does then he looks to have the class to take a race like the Cadran. You get the feeling the Baron will be sticking to the mating of Getaways Dam, Guernica, with Monsun again, having produced two very decent horses, remember Guadalupe, vaguely remember her running well when losing to Islington a few years back.
Getaways latest race is here of anyone wants to see.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=my8fbk9uJyk

Would be very interesting if he goes for it, the Baron could have a double on the day.....
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Gamble__Landed · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2007 1:05 am Post subject:

Wing Collar NAP.
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