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Heard today that McCoy has been booked to ride Snowy Morning so anyone wanting to get on should do so before AP is factored into his price.
I think i'll split my stakes on Snowy Morning and New Alco.
Just been watching some more New Alco races and considering his overall profile - he may seem to be short enough now but i'm soooooooooooooooo confident that he will win the Hennessy on Saturday. Everything about him says: WINNER. Were it not for the fact that he loses his form in the spring i'd be saying that he had a live outside chance in the Gold Cup - no joke!
i like new alco and am a fan of the rejuvenated ferdy murphy yard
ap on snowy morning is good news regarding a horse i have a fancy for
abragante an obvious danger
but if class counts denman has to be the one. he's a no-bet price, but i hope nicholls has him readier than he had kauto first time out _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
I was reading Nick Mordin who came up with a couple to add to that:
10 of the last 12 winners had run in no more than 13 chases and won more than a third of them, and they had beaten non-novice rivals in a class 2 or higher grade chase (this includes State of Play, the only horse to fit the criteria last year).
Of the horses you highlighted,
Abragante - won 3/5, incl Cl1 against non-novices
Denman - falls down on the non-novice front
Dream Alliance - won 2/6 incl Cl2 non-novice
Thanks for that Rowan. For thoese that are interesteed:
Snowy Morning is 3\6 but hasnt beaten any non-novices & New Alco is 2\12 in chase races so falls on that stat by some way although he has beaten non-novices which i think is more important. The trip is his main worry as haven't 17\17 won over 3 miles already? Obviously stats are there to be broken but thats quite a biggy!!
The 10/10 winning over 3m+ over fences, 10/10 winning a class I or class II chase and the 17/17 that have finished first or second on their previous start are difficult to argue with!
There's one horse that i'm looking at in particular that could provide some value.
One more stat for you: In the last 10 runnings 4/10 (Ever Blessed, What's Up Boys, Trabolgan and SOP) all won first time out. I know 4/10 is inconclusive but I certainly wouldn't be put off backing a horse that had not had a prior run.
Just been watching some more New Alco races and considering his overall profile - he may seem to be short enough now but i'm soooooooooooooooo confident that he will win the Hennessy on Saturday. Everything about him says: WINNER. Were it not for the fact that he loses his form in the spring i'd be saying that he had a live outside chance in the Gold Cup - no joke!
Owl
Seems a horse who isn't quite good enough to win a Big 'Un! Yes! He was just touched off in a couple of decent races last year but he always looks the type that it will happen too, unless Mr Murphy has got an improvement out of him! His Carlisle win was in a weaker race where he was getting weight from everything!
Gold Cup horse, with an outside chance - No!
Begining to look as if the weather may play a hand anyway as rain is on the way & I thinking it may be quite soft come race time! _________________ SBH Comp 2008 - Runner Up
Just been watching some more New Alco races and considering his overall profile - he may seem to be short enough now but i'm soooooooooooooooo confident that he will win the Hennessy on Saturday. Everything about him says: WINNER. Were it not for the fact that he loses his form in the spring i'd be saying that he had a live outside chance in the Gold Cup - no joke!
Owl
Seems a horse who isn't quite good enough to win a Big 'Un! Yes! He was just touched off in a couple of decent races last year but he always looks the type that it will happen too, unless Mr Murphy has got an improvement out of him! His Carlisle win was in a weaker race where he was getting weight from everything!
Gold Cup horse, with an outside chance - No!
Begining to look as if the weather may play a hand anyway as rain is on the way & I thinking it may be quite soft come race time!
I am convined he has improved massively since last season - he is still only 6 after all and ran some huge races in rough races last year for a young horse. His trainer has said that he has "hardened up" a lot this year and came out of the carlisle race better than any race last season - so it looks like he's 'become a man' this year. If you re-watch some of his races last year this is backed up as he was very green under pressure at times and didn't seem to know what to do with himself - especially when was beat a short head by D'argent over 3m1.5f at Cheltenham in soft ground (therefore no stamina doubts for the hennessy IMO) - took a while to pick up after the last and was wandering around but then the penny dropped and he flew home in the last few yards. He looks like a classic improver who has just realised what the game is all about - i think he's miles ahead of the handicapper now and this trip will bring out the best in him. We will see on Saturday but i fully expect to be vindicated!
Richard Johnson has been booked by Philip Hobbs to partner Dream Alliance.
Hobbs has three entered but Boychuk is to miss the race and Monkerhostin will do likewise if the ground, currently good to soft, deteriorates any further.
Hobbs's wife Sarah said: “The form of Dream Alliance's Perth win has worked out well and he will enjoy the cut in the ground. Philip hopes he could be a Grand National horse one day and we're very pleased with him.”
Dream Alliance beat Lothian Falcon by eight lengths in a valuable handicap chase at Perth in April to round off a successful first season over fences.
25/1 with Ladbrokes. He is my only EW bet in the race as i missed out on the 4/1 on Denman but will back the latter if 4/1 on course, the support for Snowy Morning could enable this to happen.
I hope big Tony has taught the horse to jump properly - had a few shockers last year and i'm not sure PH is equipped to win this kind of race but good luck DD - i hope you get 2nd to New Alco!
Denman is the best horse in this - obviously. I would worry about the trainers and owners past comments that he is a stuffy horse that needs his racing. He is a potential/probable winner but I have had a bit on Sir Rembrandt to place. He won at Cheltenham like an 8year old - he would have won off levels IMO. He is still well in on that run and to be in the 4 at around 4/1 is good I think. The change of trainer may have really freshened him up. _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
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