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Out of interest what do people regard as the better performance - the Betfair or the Henessy?
Hi 3
For me it has to be the weight carryig performance of Denman. Taking that into consideration it's by far and away the best jumping display that I have ever seen ( in my short NH experience).
I'm riveted to threads like this and keep on learning more and more.
But the Kauto v Denman debate is totally fascinating for me.
The above mentioned races both run on 'soft' - we know Kauto gets the 3m2f and Denman has just proved he can too, although what did he beat?
Add to the mixa quote from the RP about the BF -
As strong a field as could possibly be imagined for a Grade 1 staying chase at this stage of the season, with the first three from the Cheltenham Gold Cup and four other Grade 1 winners in the line-up,
Who would have thought a year ago that we would have not one but two NH horses vying for greatness?
Just splendid.
Oh, and let's not forget the other 7yo that could be a fly in the ointment
Exotic Dancer.
Like everyone says - please may they stay healthy (along with all the others so we have a GC to relish)
I'm rambling now aren't I ....... _________________ Does killing time damage eternity?
Quite right, in any other year I think Denman would be red hot favourite after that performance.
However, the fact is that it is not just another year, KS is a superstar.
A grade 1 is much different to a handicap, and I will not get too carried away.
I also don't necessarily think that Denman's front running tactics will mean that KS will have a harder race as I think he looks (and definately jumps) much better when travelling at a nice cruising speed.
I think Denman is very good however he has not done it at Grade 1. My two concerns are that it was Soft on Saturday which he won't get for the Gold Cup and the other being that when he was last put under pressure approaching the last he hung badly left and Don't Push It ran him to under a length. I know this incident was 12 months ago however when he is under pressure before the last again will the same thing happen?
Jet......... _________________ "there is no way anything is going to Katchit"
Three he wasnt just 20 lbs well in on the handicap. For that too happen they would have had to dead heat. Some people say a length is worth 3 lbs some say its worth 1 1/2 lbs.... Call it a only a pound and he still had 11 lbs in hand of the second and 18 in hand of the third.
Alan - I think that is my point He was (in hindsight) a blot on the handicap. Maybe the handicapper should have had him running off 175 (say) as opposed to 161 (although he could not have ever rated a novice so high). Therefore, for sake of argument, he has performed in a similar manner to Abragante the time before when he was leniently treated? (I am sounding like I am deriding Denman - I am not!). I am explaining this poorly but my point is that we know exactly what a superb performance KS put in in the Betfair because it was a level race with some horses proven to be of a very high standard (i.e. they have run several times to achieve a consistently high mark). With Denman we are guessing a little as to how good (from a ratings perspective) due to the suggestion that 161 was a lenient mark and that the horses he beat are in many cases proven to solid yardsticks. That is why I think the Betfair run can be regarded as a better one (just) as the figures have a degree of certainty.
Please though - before people accuse me of being a Denman basher (I was a KS basher last year for this sort of post) - I think it was quite exceptional - one of the very best handicap performances I have seen - and a historical review puts him in the company of some very good horses. _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
Historically it has him winning the Gold Cup. Trabolgan won, in my view, a weak renewal. Previous winners of the Henessey off of a weight of 11st 10lbs or higher.
The problem with Mill House and Arkle was that they were running in a weak NH era - there was no competition _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
Historically it has him winning the Gold Cup. Trabolgan won, in my view, a weak renewal. Previous winners of the Henessey off of a weight of 11st 10lbs or higher.
Diamond Edge is the only one not to win a Gold Cup, either the same year or the next year.
Alan - Back in those days did we have races such as the Betfair which held as much or more Kudos as the Henessy for the highest rated horses? I don't know the answer but in order not to be comparing oranges and lemons we should know. The same applies to when those horses won were there other horses in training 'rated' 20lbs higher pre Henessy with scope still? _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
Personally, I reckon Denman is a better jumper of fences (the game?) than KS and that will hold him in good stead for the years to come.
*just waiting for KS to fluff it at the last*
On the whole I would probably agree. However much is made of KS jumping and I think he is essentially a very good jumper - clever and agile. He takes liberties but is well balanced. At Haydock twice he pinged fences and took two lengths out of MWDS - in my opinion the best jumper of fence amongst the top rank - that takes some doing. The crowd - almost to a man - went OOOOhhh _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
And just like Mill House in 1963 when he won the Gold Cup Kauto, just 9 months ago, was considered invincible
Can Denman do to Kauto what Arkle did to Mill House? I don't think defeat by Denman would destroy Kauto the way Mill House's defeat in the 64 Gold Cup was one from which he never really recovered, but I think the prospect of the two of them lining up in mid-march and going head to head [with the others too] is fantastic
One thought. If the two of them really do show themselves to be a long way ahead of the others in the rest of the season, could most of the potential gold cup horses find refuge in the more winnable Ryan Air? Mill House and Arkle won in small field races, they had scared the others off. If that happens to these two, who will be more suited by the lack of other runners?
My suspicion is that Denman will be running off in front with maybe one other in any event.... so he may just have fewer hoofs ratting behind him, while Kauto runs better in company... but that's just my thought. _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
Personally, I reckon Denman is a better jumper of fences (the game?) than KS and that will hold him in good stead for the years to come.
*just waiting for KS to fluff it at the last*
On the whole I would probably agree. However much is made of KS jumping and I think he is essentially a very good jumper - clever and agile. He takes liberties but is well balanced. At Haydock twice he pinged fences and took two lengths out of MWDS - in my opinion the best jumper of fence amongst the top rank - that takes some doing. The crowd - almost to a man - went OOOOhhh
Fair enough, but to me Denman's jumping looked like pulling silk over a handrail. Smooth, effortless and economical.
_________________ Does killing time damage eternity?
Lets just hope that who ever shows the event, when these 2 meet, really build it up for the spectacle we all think it will be.
I have this feeling that, that will be the day the number of users record will go.
By the way i think Katchit will win it anyway, stuff the hurdling, lets get it on.
MT jnr _________________ THERE ARE 2 RULES TO SUCCESS. RULE 1)DONT TELL EVERYONE WHAT YOU KNOW
ruby walsh was on rte on sunday, he sided with kauto star over denman as ks has been there and done it. i dont think they'll race against each other this year and if they did i would rather be sam thomas than ruby walsh.
i wouldnt write him off as he could produce his lifetime best - and he has never been slaughtered by kauto
the pace is an interesting one; last years gold cup was run very slowly at first; that must have helped kauto
would denman and say sir rembrandt, tanking off in front, take the sting out of kauto but help ED?
Its an interesting point... and will Kicking Kingand /or war of attirition be in there battling?
far from helping KS, I think the slow pace allowed a lot of the lower rated horses to get closer than they should...
in a strong run race KS would have pulled clear like he did in the KG and Betfair Chases - 17 lengths in that (sure ED would have been close) - the evidence is in the Topspeed ratings for the 3 races and the winning distances. Check it out
He won despite the slow pace in the GC - not because of it - imo
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He was (in hindsight) a blot on the handicap. Maybe the handicapper should have had him running off 175 (say) as opposed to 161 (although he could not have ever rated a novice so high). Therefore, for sake of argument, he has performed in a similar manner to Abragante the time before when he was leniently treated? (I am sounding like I am deriding Denman - I am not!). I am explaining this poorly but my point is that we know exactly what a superb performance KS put in in the Betfair because it was a level race with some horses proven to be of a very high standard (i.e. they have run several times to achieve a consistently high mark). With Denman we are guessing a little as to how good (from a ratings perspective) due to the suggestion that 161 was a lenient mark and that the horses he beat are in many cases proven to solid yardsticks. That is why I think the Betfair run can be regarded as a better one (just) as the figures have a degree of certainty.
