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As an aside I was discussing with somebody today the race. They told me that everybody was overreacting about Denman as Trabolgan won of 11st12 too and nobody got too carried away with that. I tried to explain the 10lb difference in relative weights but they failed miserably to get the point. I wonder if this is something that more people fail to grasp
A lot of people fail to understand it and trying to explain is like banging your head against a brick wall. I've tried and failed on many occasions.
on Monday the RP rater saw the race as being a two horse race, with only Denman and Dream Alliance performing. Since then he's clearly been sucked in by every other report on the race, and has decided to raise Denman by a further 8lb in his estimate, and now claim that most of the field ran to form.
On soft ground I'd certainly be inclined to back him over any other horse in any chase at present.......but as he's never beaten standard time in any of his races its hard to assess exactly how fast he is. It may be that he's simply a relentless galloper, and only when the ground turns up good to fast will we find out whether he's the one to be on in the Gold Cup.
I agree with Harry Findlay's assesment that on soft ground Denman is the likelier winner, but on good ground KS would be slight favourite.Obviously this is only guess work and we'll never know until it happens as they are almost impossible to compare due to:
1) One has been running in Grade 1's, the other in novice races and a handicap
2) They have never met
3) There are no form lines between them having met almost exclusively different horses
4) Their radically different styles
Consequently although the idea of them facing each other in the Gold Cup is a fascinating prospect, it's going to be a somewhat dull debate between now and then as to who is best as no-one can really say or offer anything close to an informed opinion, as we have so little relative information between them!
this is only guess work and we'll never know until it happens as they are almost impossible to compare due to:
1) One has been running in Grade 1's, the other in novice races and a handicap
2) They have never met
3) There are no form lines between them having met almost exclusively different horses
4) Their radically different styles
That just about sums it up. Without anything vaguely quantifiable such as shared form lines, all debate until they meet is purely opinion based on personal interpretation.
I have seen KS win twice and Denman once, and as I said before the Hennessey (without, sadly, backing up my conviction with cold hard cash), Denman's earlier Newbury demolition job was the most visually impressive jumping performance I've seen in the flesh. There's something casually relentless about the way he runs that makes me struggle to imagine anything coming past him.
But this is where it does start to get quite personal I guess- for some reason I have never been much of a KS fan. He just doesn't do it for me. I have always liked front running grinders, perhaps because they don't get as much recognition as the flashy Dancing Braves of this world. _________________ Known as the catch of the camp.
. I think the bookies are overreacting with making him joint favourite and the odds are too short on a horse than is unproven in the top class.
Jet...........
Jet not sure what you would expect from a horse that was a novice this time last season - unproven in top class..... but he won the R&SA Chase (CL1G1) with ease and now won the Hennessy (CL1Gp3) with top weight - if they are not top class and the traditional route to GC I am not sure what is?
If you were a bookie would what price would you put on him??
Phardy,
I would have Kauto at 6/4 and Denman 3/1 because Kauto is fully proven.
I don't agree at all with your comment about 'the traditional route', can you tell me the last 3 horses to win the RSA, then the Hennessey and Gold Cup the following season?
In my view the RSA chase has only a reputation for destroying the horses futures that win this particular race, Royal Emperor et al.
Interested to try and get where you are coming from on this one.
Jet.........
This is your response to my argument and on a different matter. You provided no argument other than "!the R&SA is not a traditional route to the GC" which is clearly not true. I am not stating that it is a route to necessarily winning the Gold Cup but it is the next port of call for most of the winners of the R&SA. If you had posted a reasoned argument I would have responded as I beleive RJI has a good point regarding KS
You originally stated that Denman had not been running in "top class races" what did you really expect from a Novice chaser last season - did you want him to do a Gloria Vicits?
Denman's last two CL1 wins were by 11l and 36l As a bookie would you really be pricing him at +3-1 for the Gold Cup? It is very Brave. I had a bookmaker friend staying with us the the night after the Hennessy and he was very twitchy about any bigger than 2-1. It is easy for us punters to state fair prices when it is not your money on the line!
As for the traditional route to the GC I think that you will find the majority of winners of the R&SA do run in the GC the following year (if remaining fit) and as a 3 mile chase it was one of traditional routes to the races. that is where I am coming from. In addition there are limited races for Denman this season if he is not to clash with KS.
Previous R&S winners and their following season.
2007 Denman
2006 Star De Mohaison Would have run on both Hennessy and GC, but for an injury
2005 Trabolgan Won Hennessy and would have run in GC bit for injury
2004 Rule Supreme 3rd in WHurdle
2003 One Knight F in Henn and PU in GC
2002 Hussard Collonges F IN GC 4th In Hennessy following year
2000 Lord Noelie 7 Inj 2001 10th in GC 2002
1999 Looks Like Trouble Won GC - had won R&SA by distand.
1998 Florida Pearl 3rd in Gold Cup
1997 Hanakham Ran in the Grand National
1996 Nahthen Lad PU in GC. MR Mulligan who won GC 1997 came second in thsi race.
1995 Brief Gale
1994 Monsieur Le Cure 4th in Tripleprint then 6th in GC
They may not have the best of form, but it is one of the traditional routes to getting a horse in the Gold Cup.
I agree with a lot you say however can't side with you on this one.
Just because they have not raced against each other does not mean you can not have an informed opinion.
I think that it would be fair to say Arkle was better than Best Mate (even though I loved BM) and I never saw Arkle race.
Jet........
Jet it is true that "Just because they have not raced against each other does not mean you can not have an informed opinion." but i was trying to say (in points 1-4) that in this instance it is very hard because on ratings they are very close (whereas clearly Arkle and Best Mate couldn't be classed as being so) and all of the factors i point to mean assesment is very difficult so an opinion is possible but not really an 'informed' one if you see what i mean. If they had never faced each other but had faced some of the same opponents or ran in simlar class of races etc, then i agree that informed opinion would be possible but this is not the case so i believe it's all essentially just a stab in the dark. That's not to say that people are not entitled to their opinion though- but i just won't be expending too much brain power on what i consider to be an almost impossible puzzle to solve with the current information available.
Cheers, Owl
PS: Just to clarify, to be an 'informed' opinion, i was trying to say that we need good quality 'information', which i don't believe we have here as stated above.
No probs mucca, but opinions is what the world is built on nevertheless.
Phardy,
Glad you pulled the list up to confirm what I have thought over the years that the RSA does take its fair share of casualties.
You are correct in that RJI has a very valid point, if you look back on the thread it is the same point I raised earlier.
I think 3/1 is a fair price for a horse that is not proven in top class racing.
I hasten to add that I am not knocking Denman at all. My concern for him being that whenever there is a step up in class there is an unknown be it in racing, football, rugby etc.
Jet......... _________________ "there is no way anything is going to Katchit"
Will you therefore be laying Denman at that price - ir is it "not with my money" and expecting the bookies to do it? Even the bravest layers on betfair are not at that price yet. We are looking for value and bookies are managing risk and I fully understand their pricing
I do not think that the R&SA has any worse record than other races - in fact the Hennessey has a dreadful record. For the R&SA 2 runners injured out of 14 is not that high, SDM injury was not bad and he was a 5 YO winner, Trabolgan is more than likely injured by running in the Hennessy with top weight than the R&SA. The fact that the winners of the GC has not come from this race for some time is of more concern, however the last horse to win as impressively as Denman was Looks like Trouble.
The Gold Cup has a pretty bad record for injuries for the previous 2 yeas KK and WOA so we will see how much it took out of KS as the season progresses!
I said RJI has a point, does not mean I agree with it, but I do recognise where he is coming from. A true pace in a 3m+ race traditionally plays to the stayers hands wheras a slow pace allows the speedier merchants to win in the final half mile, which is what happened in the GC. So really it is about whether KS is a true stayer and will win if they go the pace than Denman will inevitably set.
This takes me back to my original point - one of the Nichols horses may end up setting the race up for the other......
Whatever happens we are on for some race - I just love the anticipation of the festival and this sort of th thread just wets the appetite! _________________ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzDGTMayREI
I agree with a lot you say however can't side with you on this one.
Just because they have not raced against each other does not mean you can not have an informed opinion.
I think that it would be fair to say Arkle was better than Best Mate (even though I loved BM) and I never saw Arkle race.
Jet........
Jet it is true that "Just because they have not raced against each other does not mean you can not have an informed opinion." but i was trying to say (in points 1-4) that in this instance it is very hard because on ratings they are very close (whereas clearly Arkle and Best Mate couldn't be classed as being so) and all of the factors i point to mean assesment is very difficult so an opinion is possible but not really an 'informed' one if you see what i mean. If they had never faced each other but had faced some of the same opponents or ran in simlar class of races etc, then i agree that informed opinion would be possible but this is not the case so i believe it's all essentially just a stab in the dark. That's not to say that people are not entitled to their opinion though- but i just won't be expending too much brain power on what i consider to be an almost impossible puzzle to solve with the current information available.
Cheers, Owl
PS: Just to clarify, to be an 'informed' opinion, i was trying to say that we need good quality 'information', which i don't believe we have here as stated above.
Now this is a fascinating debate.
I agree that the ratings for Denman and Kauto are very similar and this can make it difficult to assess their chances. In fact, the only way to do it is to form a judgement about the ratings and the performances associated with them.
In assessing races like this, Topspeed will always be my first port of call. Kautos 176 achieved in Grade 1 stands out as an exceptional effort given his preferred racing style. As I have stated several times before, it is my strong belief that KS could produce a monstrous performance if circumstances permit. For example, being in front from 5 out in the Betfair would not be ideal for him yet he still produced as massive 176 TS. The horse has a potent turn of foot yet can cruise through races at high speed too, so I cannot see Denman running the finish out of him however fast he goes and that's why I make KS my even money favourite.
I only have Denman as second favourite as Exotic Dancer has raced KS four times and has yet to beat him and, given the comments above about how well suited KS will be to the way the Gold Cup is likely to be run, I would expect Kauto to confirm the form.
However, 10/1+ or so Exotic Dancer looks a value price as I make him about a 5/1 shot considering I expect one of the big 3 to win (assuming they all turn up).
Excellent thread this. Firstly, i'm not too sure about "he's not proven in a Grade One regarding" Denman. He's won Grade One's as a novice hurdler and novice chaser and put up a Grade One performance the other day. I can't see anything but a Denman victory in the Lexus Chase and probably a comfortably victory at that. On what we've seen so far this season he looks to be one of the two horses that has the potential to lower KS' colours at Cheltenham. I can't see him getting beaten in a hurry.
Also I can't see how people think KS has suspect stamina. How many Grade One's at 3m+ now? How many times has he looked all-out in those races? Someone posted earlier something about needing thorough stayers to win the GC. Thorough stayers like Best Mate, KK and WOA?! They weren't exactly what I would call 'thorough stayers'. They were class horses that won the race because they out-classed the opposition not out-stayed them. The thorough stayers like Sir Rembrandt, TTS, Commanche Court and Hedghunter filled the runners-up spot behind horses that had more class. Kauto Star won't be undone by a fast pace in the GC and at the moment I still make him a narrow favourite over Denman and ED given the likely conditions at Cheltenham.
I think Kauto Star is a worthy favourite as he's been there and got the t-shirt.Denman has had 1 run outside of novice races and yet Denman excites me in a way KS never has.I think there could be a lot more to come from Denman and he could dominate the staying chases for a long time to come.If true where does KS go? _________________ Always remember you're unique,just like everyone else.
it maybe a little premature to even think Denman could dominate the staying chases for a while, I think he still needs to beat horses of the calibre that Kauto Star has. If Denman does dominate the 3 mile races then I suppose Kauto could win 3 champion chases on the trot.
You could talk about this til the cows come home & everyone will have their own view & a clash at Cheltenham will wind up the meeting beautifully on the last day!
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