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3) There are no form lines between them having met almost exclusively different horses
Owl
I think this is why the Lexus Chase could be very informative, obviously depending on exactly which horses turn up, but form lines through The Listener, Beef or Salmon (in Ireland only), Exotic Dancer (if not in the KG) would be useful _________________ Kauto Star is a horse god
I am particularly excited about them clashing BECAUSe of their different styles.
Kauto has been taught to "switch off" and be ridden [albeit handilly] off the pace. Denman will set the pace.
I love front running horses, and the way denman had everything else beingridden along while Sam Thomas was holding a double handful and looking behind was as good a moment s when dwyer virtually stood up in the irons on Jodami in the back straight when he won the gold cup and kind of said "come on guys.... try for goodness sake!"
there is no doubt that the horses denman has beaten are not as good as the horses kauto has beaten [so far] but of course he has just stepped out of novice company, and in fairness 10 lengths ahead of snowy morning and 4 more ahead of aces four in the RSA and a 36 lengths winner over Mr Pointment at newbury [and we saw what that horse did at Aintree 12 days ago] suggests he is of the very highest class.
Can Kauto kick off a REALLY strong pace? We don't know. We know Denman will keep galloping up the hill at Cheltenham after 3 miles as he did last March, we kow he jumps quickly, boldly, accurately and [so far] without a hint of a blemish [and Kauto has laways been prone to hit a few, although never looking like falling...as I have said before, Arkle used to breast a few in the same way]
i dont think as someone hinted thye will slit each other's throats by their tactics. I do, however, think that this will be the biggest test either of them has yet had, and IF denman's front running tactics work as well as they did at newbury [where he does seem to relish the course and perform extremely well] he COULD expose any chinks in Kauto
As I have said before, this is so like Mill House v Arkle, gold Cup 1964, and in that race, the front runner lost [and was never the same again] _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
Paddy Power are going 1/3 Denman for the Lexus! _________________ First Competition Winner 2009
Lincoln Competition Winner 2009
Goodwood Competition Winner 2009
A steeplechase for five yrs old and upwards
Weights - 5-y-o 11st 9lb; 6-y-o and up 11st 10lb
Allowances - Mares allowed 5lb
1 11/2 Afistfullofdollars 9 , 11-10 Eamon McElroy Noel Meade 135
2 U1F1 Alexander Taipan 7 , 11-10 Noel O'Callaghan W P Mullins 144
3 1083 Beef Or Salmon 11 , 11-10 B J Craig Michael Hourigan 167
4 -111 Denman 7 , 11-10 Paul K Barber & Mrs M Findlay P.F.Nicholls (in GB)
5 4232 Faasel 6 , 11-10 Jim Ennis N.G.Richards (in GB)
6 2U-5 Father Matt 9 , 11-10 Mrs A S O'Brien Noel Meade 143
7 0381 Forget The Past (GB) 9 , 11-10 S Mulryan M J P O'Brien 155
8 5-99 Hedgehunter 11 , 11-10 Trevor J Hemmings W P Mullins 166
9 65P2 Hi Cloy 10 , 11-10 Mrs S McCloy Michael Hourigan 153
10 1U11 L'Antartique (FR) 7 , 11-10 Mrs A N Durkan Ferdy Murphy (in GB)
11 1632 Mister Top Notch 8 , 11-10 Mrs Marie Cronin D E Fitzgerald 145
12 0P11 Mossbank 7 , 11-10 Gigginstown House Stud Michael Hourigan 151
13 111U Offshore Account 7 , 11-10 Brian Polly C F Swan 149
14 1631 Our Ben (GB) 8 , 11-10 Trevor J Hemmings W P Mullins 143
16 1F25 Schindlers Hunt 7 , 11-10 Slaneyville Syndicate D T Hughes 146
17 F536 Slim Pickings 8 , 11-10 Doubtful Five Syndicate T J Taaffe 147
18 124F Snowy Morning 7 , 11-10 Quayside Syndicate W P Mullins 143
19 25-F Southern Vic 8 , 11-10 Mrs Brenda Graham T M Walsh 146
20 -642 State Of Play (GB) 7 , 11-10 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams (in GB)
21 6/4F Strong Flow 10 , 11-10 B C Marshall D T Hughes 139
22 1214 Taranis (FR) 6 , 11-10 Mrs A B Yeoman & C R Whittaker P.F.Nicholls (in GB)
23 -20U The Listener 8 , 11-10 Old Moss Farm R.H.Alner (in GB)
24 731- The Railway Man 8 , 11-10 Cathal M Ryan A L T Moore
25 2354 Turpin Green 8 , 11-10 Trevor Hemmings N.G.Richards (in GB)
Latest Prices - Last Updated 05 December 2007 8.15PM »Compare Prices
47/100 Denman 38/5 The Listener 12/1 Beef Or Salmon 29/2 State Of Play 16/1 Hedgehunter 16/1 LAntartique 33/2 Mossbank 33/2 Snowy Morning 17/1 Taranis (FR) 35/2 Turpin Green 27/1 Faasel 27/1 Forget The Past 27/1 Offshore Account 27/1 Schindlers Hunt 35/1 Alexander Taipan 35/1 Our Ben 35/1 Southern Vic 39/1 Slim Pickings 45/1 Afistfullofdollars 45/1 Hi Cloy 45/1 Strong Flow 45/1 The Railway Man 54/1 Mister Top Notch 64/1 Father Matt 74/1 Scarthy Lad
1/3 Denman 7/1 The Listener 10/1 Beef Or Salmon 12/1 State Of Play 14/1 LAntartique 16/1 Mossbank 16/1 Snowy Morning 33/1 Offshore Account 33/1 Hi Cloy
I also think 1/3 is a loony price for a horse, however good, in a competitive race in Ireland just after Christmas. OK, he may get his going, but there are a number of potential "dark horses" here - The Listener, Mossbank and Offshore Account to name but three! And never forget Beef or Salmon in Ireland!
except..... there is a reasaonable chnace that he will be winning like an odds-on shot _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
In assessing races like this, Topspeed will always be my first port of call. Kautos 176 achieved in Grade 1 stands out as an exceptional effort given his preferred racing style. As I have stated several times before, it is my strong belief that KS could produce a monstrous performance if circumstances permit. For example, being in front from 5 out in the Betfair would not be ideal for him yet he still produced as massive 176 TS. The horse has a potent turn of foot yet can cruise through races at high speed too, so I cannot see Denman running the finish out of him however fast he goes and that's why I make KS my even money favourite.
At the risk of agreeing and being pictured on the same side in a shamardal picture - I agree
Speed ratings offer a chance of differentiation - and speed performances can give you a clue. In this respect KS would be a favourite at this stage.
I draw some parallels between KS and Best Mate. Best Mate was always better coming off a good pace on good ground. Like KS he was economical in his races and had a finish that gave him the opportunity to run very fast times - but this only happens when the race is set up. His second Gold Cup is the best Gold Cup for years in terms of performance IMO (at least on my ratings it is and by Topspeed). It was a relatively small field and a modest early pace was set. They then started to up the ante in the second circuit and he was pulling a train by the time they got to the bottom of the hill. He literally ran away from them and equalled standard time which is often hard to do in the Gold Cup. I can see a similar style of performance from KS if Denman goes from a circuit out - the acceleration of KS would see him home - and as noted could lead to a tremendous speed figure. _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
In assessing races like this, Topspeed will always be my first port of call. Kautos 176 achieved in Grade 1 stands out as an exceptional effort given his preferred racing style. As I have stated several times before, it is my strong belief that KS could produce a monstrous performance if circumstances permit. For example, being in front from 5 out in the Betfair would not be ideal for him yet he still produced as massive 176 TS. The horse has a potent turn of foot yet can cruise through races at high speed too, so I cannot see Denman running the finish out of him however fast he goes and that's why I make KS my even money favourite.
At the risk of agreeing and being pictured on the same side in a shamardal picture - I agree
Speed ratings offer a chance of differentiation - and speed performances can give you a clue. In this respect KS would be a favourite at this stage.
I draw some parallels between KS and Best Mate. Best Mate was always better coming off a good pace on good ground. Like KS he was economical in his races and had a finish that gave him the opportunity to run very fast times - but this only happens when the race is set up. His second Gold Cup is the best Gold Cup for years in terms of performance IMO (at least on my ratings it is and by Topspeed). It was a relatively small field and a modest early pace was set. They then started to up the ante in the second circuit and he was pulling a train by the time they got to the bottom of the hill. He literally ran away from them and equalled standard time which is often hard to do in the Gold Cup. I can see a similar style of performance from KS if Denman goes from a circuit out - the acceleration of KS would see him home - and as noted could lead to a tremendous speed figure.
I got the Weekender posted to me and the Topspeed rating awarded to Denman has been given as 156 as opposed to the rating that was given on the day. However, one thing I have always done (and this idea come from someone else far more learned than me) is to add 15 points to any TS rating achieved with the in running comment of 'easily', 'comfortably' or the incredibly rare 'hard held'. Although Denman didn't earn one of these comments, I think it's pretty obvious he won comfortably and could have produced a higher rating if required.
Therefore, I am happy to put him on 171 for the moment and I will be looking for him to improve on that in the Lexus. At the moment, both KS and ED are on 176.
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