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accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

Bets for this weekend:

Bet 16: Man U vs Man City - Man City WIN - £10 @ 6.0 (Waiting to be matched)

Essentially i have no idea how this match is going to go, and it might be that Man U put City firmly back in their box, but of the 2 teams City have played better football so far, look to have plenty of goals in them as well as plenty of confidence, and on that alone shouldn't be 6.0 against anyone - let alone a team struggling to get into top gear. so, a small bet on a price that i think is wrong.

Elsewhere Liverpool will probably beat West Ham, and Chelsea will probably beat Spurs, but the prices are about right, so my only other bet is a banker double:

Arsenal vs Wigan - Arsenal WIN
Villa vs Portsmouth - Villa WIN

£30 double @ 1.76 (Betdaq)

Good Luck

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

Update;

Bet 16: Man U vs MAN CITY - £10 @ 6.0 – LOST = - £10

Multiple bet 19th September 09 WON = + £21.66

So;

Total P&L on Single bets after 16 bets: + £278.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £107.50
Total P&L: + £386.24

Running Analysis of single bets:

Average size so far: £31.87
Mean Average price so far: 2.65
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.22
Strike rate so far: 68.75%
Average return per bet so far: +54.66%

A fairly predictable set of results in the end and I suppose it would have been nice to get more teams involved in the multiple, but better safe than sorry.

Not a lot that I fancy in the carling cup, and the teams that I do are prohibitively short, but looking ahead to the weekend there are a few games and prices that catch the eye and I think it could be a good week. Fingers crossed…

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

There are a number of matches that I think are good value this week, and absolutely wouldn’t put anyone off backing Everton, Villa or Arsenal in decent singles specifically. However, when weeks like this come along that look predictable and where the prices aren’t so cramped as to be unplayable, I tend to think you have to try and take advantage (is this regrets over last week talking…?)

So, from the following;

Portsmouth vs EVERTON (1.97)
Blackburn vs VILLA (2.42)
Stoke vs MAN U (1.42)
Wigan vs CHELSEA (1.36)
Fulham vs ARSENAL (1.61)
SUNDERLAND (1.78 ) vs Wolves
MAN CITY (1.47) vs West Ham

I have done £2 5-folds (£42), £2 6-folds (£14) and a £4 acca – total £60.

Additionally I have done a £30 4-fold of Everton, Chelsea, Man U & Arsenal at odds of 5.84.

So that’s £90 invested. WIll be watching all of the Saturday games in the pub for a friend's birthday so hoping for a great weekend.

Be Lucky

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

Update;

Multiple bet 26th - 28th September 09 = - £73.74

Suffice to say i was not a happy bunny. My shortest priced selection capitulate by conceding a penalty and having their goalie sent off, and Villa - who looked to be coming into some sort of form - manage to lose to a 10 man Blackburn. So, 5 games out of 7 correct, biggest loss of the season. Infuriating.

So;

Total P&L on Single bets after 16 bets: + £278.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £33.76
Total P&L: + £312.50

Running Analysis of single bets:

Average size so far: £31.87
Mean Average price so far: 2.65
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.22
Strike rate so far: 68.75%
Average return per bet so far: +54.66%

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

Bets for this weekend:

Bet 17: Bolton vs Tottenham - Tottenham WIN - £30 @ 2.02
Bet 18: Villa vs Man City - Man City WIN - £25 @ 2.76

Multiple bet:

Bolton vs Tottenham
Villa vs Man City
Everton vs Stoke

£10 treble @ 8.56

£65 invested, hoping for better luck this week.

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

was looking forward to turning things around after the international break after a couple of tough weeks beforehand, but frustratingly there are no standouts, so i will keep the powder dry until next week, when i'm sure there will be better chances.

will update the stats before my next bets...

good luck to anyone having a punt this weekend.

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

Update;

Total P&L on Single bets after 18 bets: + £223.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £23.76
Total P&L: + £247.50

Running Analysis of single bets:

Average size so far: £31.38
Mean Average price so far: 2.62
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.23
Strike rate so far: 61.11%
Average return per bet so far: +39.6%

This week's bets to follow shortly...

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

This week's bets...

Bet 19: Wolves vs Aston Villa - Villa WIN - £25 @ 2.23
Bet 20: Birmingham vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £25 @ 2.69
Bet 21: Burnley vs Wigan - Wigan WIN - £25 @ 3.1
Bet 22: Bolton vs Everton - Everton WIN - £25 @ 2.7
Bet 23: Liverpool vs Man U - Man U WIN - £25 @ 2.59

5 away wins please Carol...

Obviously there are the obligatory multiples to throw in on top...

Bet365 go;

Villa 11/10
Sunderland 6/4
Wigan 15/8
Everton 13/8
Man U 6/4
Tottenham 4/9
Arsenal 1/2

So...

5 x £2 6-folds, leaving out one of the original 5 selections each time but including Tottenham and Arsenal in all bets. £10.

Also, from the original 5 selections, £3 4-folds. £15.

All of which adds up to £150 punted on the week. Fingers crossed.

Be Lucky

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

Adding another few for this afternoon and looking forward to watching it from the comfort of the sofa after a heavy few days on the booze...

i think Man U might run riot at Anfield:

Liverpool vs Man U - Draw No Bet - Man U WIN - £30 @ 1.82 (I will count this as part of Bet 23 as it is part of that selection really)

"Special Bets"

Liverpool vs Man U

Over 2.5 goals - YES - £20 @ 2.22
Over 3.5 goals - YES - £10 @ 4.0

enjoy the game and good luck!

AJ

accajacca · Group Performer Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 2354

my ability to get teams turned over is absolutely uncanny at the moment

still, plenty of the season still left to get back to where we need to be...

will update before next week's picks.

AJ