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Gauvain and Poquelin are the stat horses...what does everyone think of them????
The four that I like with regards to the stats are Gauvain, Shining Gale, Poquelin and Razor Royale. Razor Royale probably won't get in and may not be classy enough for this but the other three all warrant respect. Shining Gale would be my pick at the moment though. Gauvain has got penalised for beating Chapoturgeon at the back end of last season and Poquelin has gone up for his win a few weeks ago. I thought Shining Gale ran a promising first run if the season at Ascot the other day and should go to Cheltenham fit and on a decent mark.
I saw Poquelin win at Cheltenham in October, and I was impressed. If Razor Royale doesn't get in (which is possible/likely) I too would go with Poquelin. _________________ UNEXPECTED WINNER 2009 FLAT 10 TO FOLLOW COMPETITION!
I cant see the ground being good for this race thinking about the time of year and looking at the forecast. Poqulin surely wont win in all probablitly imo.
Gauvain and Poquelin are the stat horses...what does everyone think of them????
The four that I like with regards to the stats are Gauvain, Shining Gale, Poquelin and Razor Royale. Razor Royale probably won't get in and may not be classy enough for this but the other three all warrant respect. Shining Gale would be my pick at the moment though. Gauvain has got penalised for beating Chapoturgeon at the back end of last season and Poquelin has gone up for his win a few weeks ago. I thought Shining Gale ran a promising first run if the season at Ascot the other day and should go to Cheltenham fit and on a decent mark.
My shortlist came down to the first 3 of yours plus Chapoturgeon.
What put me off Shining Gale was his only run at Cheltenham. It looks like a CD win but only because Herecomesthetruth ran out at the last. Herecomesthetruth won 4 races after that so chances are he would have won that one and that would have knocked Shining Gale out of the stats. That aside, the fact that SG won that race by 24l doesn't read like a good win to me. It reads like he didn't have to fight up the Cheltenham hill for the win, just get over the last obstacle and stroll. (Razor Royale a futher 18l back in third)
Gauvain beat Chapoturgeon over 17f at this venue last tail end and as you say has gained weight for it. It will be tougher over 20f and Chap runs much better first time out.
I can't see the problem with Shining Gale's course form - one run at Cheltenham, one win (2m5f). I take on board the point regarding Herecomesthetruth running out at the last but the comments in running from that race are interesting:
Shining Gale
"Tracked leader from 6th, challenged after 2 out, slight advantage and going ok when left clear last (tchd 7-1 and 17-2)"
Herecomesthetruth
"Took keen hold, led, pushed along, narrowly headed but going ok when ran out last (op 11-10 tchd 10-11 and 6-5 in places)"
From those comments the race looked like being a tough one to call so to assume that Shining Gale was a lucky winner may be a tad unfair on the horse. The fact that Shining Gale won by over 20l tells you that these two were a cut above the rest. Also, Shining Gale was 2nd to Killyglen at Aintree and Herecomesthetruth was pulled up.
On a separate point, another reason why I like Shining Gale is that he's possibly not been gotten hold of by the handicapper as yet. Chapoturgeon (153), Poquelin (150) and Gauvain (148) have all been hit by the handicapper for winning races at Cheltenham at the back end of last season or start of this one. I think Shining Gale (145) is on the most lenient mark. Interestingly he has been entered for the Betfair Chase a week later so might not even run in this race. Charlie Mann thinks a lot of this horse.
I've just watched that novice chase again and you can make a strong case for Shining Gale winning even if Herecomesthetruth had not run out. He was travelling slightly better than Herecomesthetruth coming down to the last and was powering up the hill until Noel Fehily realised there was no danger from behind and eased him down.
Yes, but how many times have we seen horses powering up that hill who don't have the luxury of easing down. Instead they have 2 or 3 other horses breathing down their neck and they fold in the last 200yds?
I'm not saying he can't win Andy, just that others have more solid form at this track.
No Surprises that my shortlist is similar to most mentioned here but I still have different opinions.
Poquelin - Strongest trends horse but at this stage 6/1 is no value and I am not convinced he will be much shorter when we go NRNB.
Gauvain - No winning form over 2m4 or 2m5 and there is no way in the world that I am backing an unproven stayer in a competetive handicap at Cheltenham.
Shining Gale - Only thing that puts me off this horse is I backed him last year at Southwell under advice that CM thinks a lot of this horse but it is the only time I have backed a chaser that has made a mistake at every fence. He has obviously improved since then so I might change my mind when we go NRNB but I am definitely not going to discount him because his C&D form is not good enough. I would not forgive myself if I did not respect the importance of winning C&D form at Cheltenham.
My trends pick is Ballyfitz. His course form is fantastic - apart from a PU & a UR when out of his depth he has been 1st or 2nd on the other 5 times here. Only negative is they might go too quick for him but he will definitely stay and at 20/1 is antepost value at this stage. Goes well first time out which is a bonus too. _________________ ROLL OF HONOUR
WINNER - 2006 WORLD CUP FANTASY FOOTBALL COMP
WINNER - 2007 CHELTENHAM COMP
JOINT WINNER - 2007 CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST COMP
WINNER - NEW YEARS EVE 2007 DAILY COMP
WINNER - 2008 CHELTENHAM COMP
WINNER - 2008 AINTREE COMP
WINNER - EURO 2008 TAIKAI GROUP MATCH BETTING COMP
WINNER - 2008\2009 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE COMP
Fair enought point regarding Gauvain. The trip is a bit of a concern.
I totally agree that it's dangerous to dismiss Shining Gale as having insufficient course form. He may well have beaten Herecomesthetruth anyway in that novice chase (at level weights as well) and Herecomesthetruth went on to land a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 afterwards. I think that was decent form, especially as those two had the rest of the field beaten off a long way out in that race.
I hadn't analysed the form of that race but it sounds like to form to sit up and take notice of and not discount it. SG has a superb trends profile for the race and if I can get that Southwell run out of my head I will be getting on when the market goes NRNB depending on the price of course. _________________ ROLL OF HONOUR
WINNER - 2006 WORLD CUP FANTASY FOOTBALL COMP
WINNER - 2007 CHELTENHAM COMP
JOINT WINNER - 2007 CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST COMP
WINNER - NEW YEARS EVE 2007 DAILY COMP
WINNER - 2008 CHELTENHAM COMP
WINNER - 2008 AINTREE COMP
WINNER - EURO 2008 TAIKAI GROUP MATCH BETTING COMP
WINNER - 2008\2009 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE COMP
It's not just the race from Cheltenham that is working out well from a form point of view. His run at Aintree when 2nd to Killyglen isn't looking too bad either. Coq Hardi, who finished down the field, won his next 2 races, Seigemaster (3rd) won a chase in Ireland a few weeks ago and Killyglen himself ran a pretty decent race the other day at Carlisle when trying to give 16lbs to the useful Knockara Beau (beaten <10l my Mikael D'Hag' in the Ballymore). Aside from the one poor run that you have already mentioned his form is pretty solid. Herecomesthetruth and Seigemaster both run in the same race tomorrow in Ireland. A big run from both of those would be another boost to SG's form.
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